Monday Night Football Picks: Do Tom Brady and the Buccaneers Want to Win the Division?

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Monday Night Football Picks: Do Tom Brady and the Buccaneers Want to Win the Division?
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Here is my Week 13 Monday Night Football Football NFL bets that I will take to the window. We'll start with our prop bets, then pick the game. 

Here are Monday Night Football Prop Bets to Consider

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
Caesars -135 Bucs’ Tom Brady Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
DraftKings +155 Saints’ Chris Olave Over 75.5 receiving yards
BetMGM +150 Saints’ Taysom Hill to score a touchdown
BetMGM +800 Breshard Perriman to score and Buccaneers win
Caesars -103 Saints’ Will Lutz Over 6.5 points

For the season, player prop bets are 69-48 for 59% winning bets averaging a +237 wager, making $2,063 per $50 bet.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Buccaneers -3 | Total: 41.5 points

I am betting the Buccaneers minus the three points as offered at Caesars.

If the playoffs started right now, only the Buccaneers at 5-6 would get a berth from the NFC South.

So, in a rare twist of fate, these two losing record teams (the Saints are 4-8) have a lot on the line when they meet tonight.

What are the Betting Lines Telling Us?

Before the season, the Circa Sportsbook opened this game with the Bucs favored by 6.5 points and has since seen steady price decline to the current 3-point level. 

Overall, the number of tickets bet on each team is even at 50% each, but 80% of the total take has been on the Saints. However, the current 3-point price makes the Bucs an attractive betting opportunity.

The Saints' offense has been anemic at best this season and the team is coming off a 13-0 shutout loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who have the best defense in the NFC. 

The Saints have averaged a horrid 12.3 points per game over their last three games and will be going up against a Bucs defense ranking fifth in scoring defense, allowing 18.5 points per game and sixth in points per play ratio allowed at .293. 

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady ranks first in the NFL, throwing an interception on just .64% of his pass attempts. I expect him to have a huge night against a Saints defense that ranks last in the NFL by getting an interception on only .53% of the passes thrown on the season.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • Saints coach Dennis Allen is 9-21 against the spread in games played on grass for his career.
  • Teams that scored three or fewer points in their previous game (Saints) and now playing on Monday night, lined between the 3’s, are 1-6 ATS
  • Teams facing a divisional foe on Monday night and playing with same-season revenge, having lost as a home underog are 3-7 ATS.
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