NFL Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline Has Value Against Raiders

Article By John Ryan

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

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Last Updated: Mar 14^th, 2024

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Here is my Week 13 Football NFL betting picks that I will take to the window. We'll start with our prop bets, then pick the game. 

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These Are My Best Prop Bet Picks for NFL Week 13 matchups

For the season, player prop bets are 65-48 for 58% winning bets averaging a +248 wager, making $1,863 per $50 bet.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Line: Raiders -1 | Total: 49.5 points

I am betting the Chargers using the moneyline +110 as offered at Caesars.

This is a heated and highly competitive divisional rival between these two AFC foes with six of the last seven games decided by seven or fewer points. The Chargers are coming off a 25-24 win over the Arizona Cardinals scoring a two-point conversion with just 15 seconds left in the game. It was the first time a two-point play had been called this season after they led the NFL by attempting 11 last season.

The Chargers' Justin Herbert is excited to play the Raiders as he is the only quarter in the Raiders franchise history to throw two or more touchdown passes in his first five meetings. Given the Raiders' defense ranking 26^th in scoring defense allowing 25.1 points per game, 27^th ranking in allowing an average of 371 yards per game, and 28^th in allowing 46% third down conversions, Herbert is likely to throw for four or more touchdowns.

Situational Trends and Angles

• From my predictive models, the Chargers are 8-1 straight-up when they have rushed for 100 or more yards and passed for 325 or more yards. 
• The Raiders are 2-10 straight-up when allowing 100 or more rushing yards and 325 or more passing yards.
• The Raiders are 10-22 straight-up when facing a team that averages 90 or fewer rushing yards per game in the second half of each of the past 10 seasons.

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

John Ryan

Last Updated:   Mar 14^th, 2024

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