NFL Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline Has Value Against Raiders

NFL Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline Has Value Against Raiders
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Here is my Week 13 Football NFL betting picks that I will take to the window. We'll start with our prop bets, then pick the game. 

These Are My Best Prop Bet Picks for NFL Week 13 matchups

For the season, player prop bets are 65-48 for 58% winning bets averaging a +248 wager, making $1,863 per $50 bet.

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
Caesars -135 Bucs Tom Brady Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
DraftKings -130 Cowboys Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
BetMGM +165 Bengals Joe Burrow Over 2.5 passing touchdowns
PointsBets -120 Eagles Jalen Hurts Over 220.5 -120 passing yards
Caesars -113 Chargers Justin Herbert Over 189.5 passing yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Line: Raiders -1 | Total: 49.5 points

I am betting the Chargers using the moneyline +110 as offered at Caesars.

This is a heated and highly competitive divisional rival between these two AFC foes with six of the last seven games decided by seven or fewer points. The Chargers are coming off a 25-24 win over the Arizona Cardinals scoring a two-point conversion with just 15 seconds left in the game. It was the first time a two-point play had been called this season after they led the NFL by attempting 11 last season.

The Chargers' Justin Herbert is excited to play the Raiders as he is the only quarter in the Raiders franchise history to throw two or more touchdown passes in his first five meetings. Given the Raiders' defense ranking 26th in scoring defense allowing 25.1 points per game, 27th ranking in allowing an average of 371 yards per game, and 28th in allowing 46% third down conversions, Herbert is likely to throw for four or more touchdowns.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • From my predictive models, the Chargers are 8-1 straight-up when they have rushed for 100 or more yards and passed for 325 or more yards. 
  • The Raiders are 2-10 straight-up when allowing 100 or more rushing yards and 325 or more passing yards.
  • The Raiders are 10-22 straight-up when facing a team that averages 90 or fewer rushing yards per game in the second half of each of the past 10 seasons.
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