NFL Picks: Will DeAndre Hopkins' Return Ignite Cardinals vs. Saints?
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To help with your NFL betting, here is our advice for the Thursday Night Football game.
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
Line: Cardinals -2.5 | Total: 43.5 points
I am betting on the Saints +2.5 points as offered at BetMGM.
The betting markets opened with the Saints (2-4 straight-up, 2-4 against the spread, 4-2 Over-Under) as a 3-point underdog to the Cardinals (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 Over-Under).
The public accounts for 60% of the tickets bet, but only 45% of the money. So, larger bets are being placed more on the Saints than the Cardinals. That supports my preferred bet on the Saints, plus the 2.5 points.
The return of three-time All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins after serving a six-game suspension is expected to significantly boost the Cardinals' offense, which ranks last in the NFL. Arizona is averaging .5 points scored in the first quarter and 4.83 points scored in the first half.
Still, the chemistry between quarterback Kyler Murray and Hopkins will need work because of the lack of practice and game reps. So, I do not see a huge game from Murray and Hopkins tonight.
Situational Trends and Angles
Professional sports bettors look for contrarian opportunities that feature a struggling road team, and the following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Saints.
- Underdogs who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 35-24-1 ATS (59%) this season.
- The Saints are 21-11 ATS (65.6%) in road games when facing a defense allowing six or fewer yards per play (YPPL).
- From my predictive models, the Saints are expected to commit the same or fewer turnovers than the Cardinals.
- New Orleans is 23-10 ATS (70%) in road games in which it committed the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent since 2017.
- The Cardinals are 9-21-1 ATS (30%) at home and committing the same or more turnovers than their opponent.
Best Prop Bet Picks
For the season, player prop bets are 33-21 for 61% winning bets, making $983 per $50 bet.
Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season. Let’s Go!
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