UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
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Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
- Tom Aspinall to beat Marcin Tybura via KO/TKO in round one (+165) at FanDuel
- Molly McCann to beat Julija Stoliarenko via KO/TKO (+175) at Caesars
- Nathaniel Wood to beat Andre Fili on points (+120) at BetMGM
- Paul Craig vs Andre Muniz to end via submission (-125) at FanDuel
- Fares Ziam on points against Jai Herbert (+210) at DraftKings
The UFC heads across the pound this Saturday for another edition of UFC London. We get to see the return of the rising star Tom Aspinall, and many other European stars look to put on a show at the O2.
For North American fans, you’ll have to get on the couch at around 3 p.m. for the main card, and to help out with your UFC betting, here are our picks for the UFC this weekend.
UFC Fight Night Analysis and Betting Advice
Tom Aspinall (-500) vs. Marcin Tybura (+360)
The long-awaited return of Britain’s greatest heavyweight prospect headlines the main event just over one year after Aspinall’s brutal injury against Curtis Blaydes.
Aspinall injured his knee in the main event in London last year after he kicked Blaydes’ leg and was unable to continue. In what will be his third headline spot in London, we expect Aspinall to put on another flawless display.
Before his unfortunate loss to Blaydes, the Brit ran through all his opponents in the UFC, winning his first five fights and claiming the Performance of the Night bonus in four of them. In fact, only the legendary Andrei Arlovski has managed to get out of the first round with him, and even then, the former champion was submitted.
As the odds suggest, Aspinall is too good for Tybura. His striking is arguably the best around in the heavyweight rankings, and his submission game is also of the highest order.
Tybura is skilled in his own way, and he has claimed 24 wins from 31 fights but also lost six times from 17 UFC fights.
However, Aspinall has got the job done in the first round in 11 of his 12 wins, and we expect him to do the same here.
Molly McCann (-215) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+172)
Molly McCann should ease to a win when she meets with Julija Stoliarenko in the co-main event. Stoliarenko, in truth, has struggled since the moment she arrived in the UFC.
The Lithuanian lost all three of her first three fights in the organization before finally beating Jessica-Rose Clark last summer. However, even this victory has lost some substance because of Clark's awful UFC record that saw her get cut earlier this year.
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Stoliarenko also lost to Chelsea Chandler via TKO last October inside the first minute, and it seems that unless she can get in a grappling exchange and wrap up a submission, she is relatively ineffective.
Since losing her UFC debut, McCann has established herself as a top name in the flyweight rankings and a victory for the Brit would put her as close to the top 15 ranked positions as she’s ever been.
McCann did lose to Erin Blanchfield via submission in her last outing, but prior to this, she defeated Kim Ji-yeon in a Fight of the Night victory before defeating Luana Carolina and Hannah Goldy with two stunning knockout blows.
After losing via TKO in her last fight and given the excellent knockout capabilities of McCann, we expect Stoliarenko to be on the end of another KO/TKO loss.
Nathaniel Wood (-200) vs. Andre Fili (+160)
After terrible luck by missing out on two of the huge UFC cards in London in the past two years, Nathaniel Wood is back in his home city to face off against Andre Fili.
We expect this fight to be a contender for Fight of the Night, as we have two very skilled strikers who love to get into boxing exchanges.
Fili has outboxed and outworked 10 of his opponents from his 32 fights to claim wins on points and has won via KO/TKO from nine of his 22 wins.
However, what gives Wood the edge in this bout is his vastly superior grappling ability. After entering the UFC in 2018, Wood won his first three fights in the organization via submission and has since registered comfortable decision victories over John Castaneda, Charles Rosa and Charles Jourdain.
We expect Wood to dictate the pace of the fight and for his movement on the feet to be too slick for Fili to land anything significant and anything consistently. Combine this with the chance he could throw in a few takedowns, and it points to another comfortable win on points for the Brit.
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Paul Craig (+184) vs. Andre Muniz (-230)
Paul Craig returns to see if he can register his fourth MMA win in London with a victory over Andre Muniz in what could also steal the Fight of the Night award. Craig has more bonuses than any other man in light heavyweight history, with a stunning seven Performance of the Night bonuses that sees him tied for the second most in UFC history.
Two of Craig’s wins in the English capital have come in the UFC, including a stunning triangle choke of the number two ranked fighter at 205 lbs, Magomed Ankalaev. The Scot has also beaten Nikita Krylov in the same manner, after locking in another triangle just over one minute into the fight.
Craig lost to Volkan Oezdemir in London last time in what was his first and only professional fight to go the distance from the 23 so far.
In total, 13 of his 16 wins have come via submission, and against a man who has 15 of his 23 wins in this way, too, Craig will fancy his chances once more. Muniz is a third degree black belt, however, and only a handful of fighters in UFC history have been ranked higher.
Needless to say, we expect a jiu-jitsu battle here and for the fight to end via submission.
Jai Herbert (+134) vs. Fares Ziam (-164)
At 35, it feels like make or break for Jai Herbert in terms of getting into the lightweight rankings and he will have a tough test against Fares Ziam.
In the UFC, Herbert has now lost three fights, drawn one and won two other victories, but in reality, these are the type of records that often force the organization to cut you.
Herbert is, however, an excellent striker and possesses fantastic knockout power. The Brit has now won nine of his 12 fights via KO/TKO and only ever gone the distance twice in his 17 professional fights, both of which he claimed a decision victory.
Ziam, on the other hand, is more than a one-trick pony. He has won five of his 13 fights via KO/TKO, four with a submission and claimed four more victories on points. However, in his UFC career so far, the Frenchman has won three of his four fights on points and lost to only Terrance McKinney via submission.
Herbert does have a chance here, but we don’t see how he outclasses Ziam. For this reason, we think the latter gets another points victory.
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