MLB Betting Advice: How Will the Mets Respond After a Tough June?
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
Inter-League Best Bet
Texas Rangers +165 at New York Mets -175
7:10 p.m. ET
The New York Mets went 13-12 in June and saw their NL East Division lead of 11 games shrink to three over the Atlanta Braves entering July.
The Braves went 21-6 and only the New York Yankees were better, with a 22-6 record in June.
The Mets have not played consistently for weeks now and they cannot overlook a Texas Rangers squad looking to get back to .500 and contend for an Al Wild Card.
The Mets are in good shape, though, knowing that they will be getting Max Scherzer back soon and then Jacob DeGrom, likely in August.
They are the Mets’ best pitchers and their returns should boost the team.
Here are the supporting trends and angles for a bet on the Rangers:
- The Rangers are 25-17 when facing a starting pitcher that allows an average of 5.5 or fewer hits per start this season.
- The Rangers are 45-25 when facing an NL starting pitcher with a 1.15 or better WHIP over the past 25 seasons.
- The Rangers are 16-7 as an underdog between +125 and +175 producing a 48% return on investment this season.
I am betting the Rangers +165 on the moneyline as offered at BetMGM.
National League Best Bet
San Diego Padres +160 at the LA Dodgers -170
10:10 p.m. ET
I had a winning bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday as they took this first game of this four-game set against the San Diego Padres by a final score of 3-1.
The Dodgers have one of their two undefeated starting pitchers going tonight in Tony Gonsolin, who is 9-0 in 14 starts with a sensational 1.58 ERA and a 0.851 WHIP.
In six home starts, he is 5-0 with an incredible 0.81 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.
The Padres will have all-star third baseman, Manny Machado, back in the lineup, but will he be enough to upset the Dodgers with Gonsolin on the hill? The Dodgers have won 12 of their past 13 games and are 10-3 on the run line against the Padres.
The Trends and Angles support the Dodgers
Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts is 42-9 following a win over a divisional rival that scored no more than a single run.
Roberts is 114-45 following back-to-back games in which his team did not commit an error.
Dodgers are 90-35 in home games and facing a team with a bullpen posting a 1.25 or lower WHIP.
I will bet the Dodgers at -175 as offered at BetMGM.
Quick Pitches
These are some other bets to consider on today’s schedule.
- Bet the Phillies’ Nick Castellanos will have 2+ hits at +195 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Bet the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas Over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -130 at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Bet the Guardians’ Josh Naylor to hit a home run at +525 at BetRivers Sportsbook.
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