MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 30
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bet
New York Mets -110 at Atlanta Braves +100
7:20 p.m. ET
The much-anticipated showdown for the NL East Division crown and first-round bye to start the playoffs starts tonight at Truist Stadium in Atlanta. The Braves trail the Mets by one game with six games remaining and will have their ace on the hill in left-hander Max Fried.
The Mets are pulling out all stops by moving right-hander Jacob Degrom to start this game on one less day of rest than usual.
DeGrom had been a dominating force since making his first start of the season on Aug. 2. However, he has been hit hard over his last three starts, in which he has posted a 6.60 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP.
Fried is in top form with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.059 WHIP over his last three starts and is 13-7 in 29 starts with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP for the season.
The key to this game is the bullpens, where the Braves have a significant advantage. The Mets’ pen has floundered recently, posting a 6.00 ERA and a 1.458 WHIP over their last seven games. The Braves’ pen has been dominating lately, posting a 1.09 ERA and a .77 WHIP over their previous seven games.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Braves using the moneyline in this matchup. Check out this 2-minute video clip featuring a highly profitable betting system.
- The Braves are 20-5, making 14 units on the moneyline, when playing on Fridays.
- The Braves starter Max Fried is 53-24, making 20 units on the moneyline, in all starts spanning the past three seasons.
- The Braves are 64-29, making 30.5 units on the moneyline, after a game in which they scored two or fewer runs in all games played over the last three seasons.
I am betting the Braves using the moneyline at +100 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
American League Best Bet
Baltimore Orioles +170 at New York Yankees -180
7:05 p.m. ET
After hitting his AL-record-tying 61st home run and leading his teammates to the Al East Division title, Aaron Judge and the Yankees return to the Bronx to take on the Baltimore Orioles in the first of a 3-game set Friday night.
Ironically, Judge is playing the same team as Roger Maris faced when he tied Babe Ruth’s record with 60 homers, except that Maris was on the road and having to face hurricane winds blowing in from right field. Tonight’s game comes one day short of the 61st anniversary of Maris’ record-breaking 61st home run.
Judge is not the only record-breaking Yankee this season. Starter Gerritt Cole is tied with Ron Guidry for the single-season strikeout record, with 248. His next start is scheduled for Oct. 4, which would be the second-to-last game of the regular season.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting angles support a bet on the Over in this matchup.
- The Yankees are 17-6 Over when facing an AL team with a .325 or lower on-base percentage in the second half of this season.
- Yankees starter Domingo German is 9-1 Over in home games facing a foe that is batting .260 or lower on the season.
- Orioles starter Jordan Lyles is 64-36 Over when facing a divisional opponent for this career.
I am going to the window betting the Over 8.5 runs -120 as offered at BetRivers Sportsbook.
These are the Player Prop Bets I like on Today’s schedule
- Bet the Yankees' Domingo German Over 1.5 earned runs -130 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Yankees' Aaron Judge to record an RBI +110 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle to record an RBI +185 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Mets' Jacob DeGrom Over 1.5 earned runs allowed +105 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Braves' Auston Riley to hit a home run +440 at FanDuel.
In 144 prop bet picks, I have a 64-80 record, making a profit of $383.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,916 per $100 wager. Over more than five months, the results produced a 58.8% return on investment (ROI).
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