MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 9

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 9
© USA Today

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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Inter-League Best Bet

Atlanta Braves -110 at Seattle Mariners +100

9:40 p.m. ET

The Mariners are in the third American League Wild Card position coming into the weekend. The Braves trail the New York Mets by a half-game in the National League East standings but hold a 10.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card race. 

Seattle has not been to the playoffs since 2001, marking the longest span of any professional franchise in the four major sports.

The Braves and the Mariners win with their elite pitching staffs and defense, but the Braves have a better offense. Atlanta ranks second in MLB, scoring an average of 4.99 runs-per-game (RPG) as compared to the Mariners scoring 4.19 RPG to rank 21. 

The Braves are sixth with a 3.48 team ERA and first with 9.70 opponent strikeouts-per-nine innings. Seattle ranks fifth with a 2.36 team ERA and 21st with a 7.94 opponent strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio. 

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Braves using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • The Braves are 23-6, making 14 units on the moneyline, when facing a foe that is averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game in the past two seasons.
  • The Braves are 18-4, making 13.5 units on the moneyline, when playing on Fridays this season.
  • The Braves skipper Brian Snitker is 88-47, making 33 units on the moneyline, when priced between a -100 and -150 road favorite.

I am betting the Braves on the moneyline at –120 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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National League Best Bet

Los Angeles Dodgers -160 at San Diego Padres +140

9:40 p.m. ET

The weather forecast might impact this game and series as heavy rains from Hurricane Kay could hit the Southern California coast Friday and Saturday. 

This series means far more to the Padres, who hold the third of three NL Wild Card berths and lead the Milwaukee Brewers by 3.5 games. 

The Dodgers continue to play sensational baseball with an MLB-best 94-42 record and 18-game lead over the Padres in the NL West standings.

This game is likely to be postponed but will remain a valid bet when they do resume play. If Saturday’s game is canceled, there will likely be a doubleheader on Sunday. If that is the case, I like the Dodgers in both games of the doubleheader.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angle supports a moneyline wager on the Dodgers.

  • The Dodgers are 31-10, making 14 units on the moneyline, when taking on a solid fielding opponent that averages .5 or fewer errors per game.
  • The Dodgers are 43-13, making 20 units on the moneyline, when facing a foe whose hitters strikeout an average seven or more times per game in the second half of this season.
  • The Padres are 17-41, losing 25 units on the moneyline, when facing a team with a solid bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.50 or lower in games played this season.

I am going to the window betting the Dodgers on the moneyline -165 as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

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Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  • Bet the Phillies' Alec Bohm to get 2+ hits +160 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Phillies' Bryce Harper to get 2+ hits +230 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Rays' Brandon Lowe to get a hit –165 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Astros' Kyle Tucker to hit a home run +430 at BetRivers.
  • Bet the Angels' Mike Trout to hit a home run +310 at Unibet.

In the past 79 prop bet suggestions, I have a 41-38 record, making a profit of $405 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,025 per $100 wager. The results over more than three months have produced a 59% return on investment.

 

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