MLS Midweek Picks Week 25
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Midweek MLS action is back this week, with the overall table leaders looking to make it seven wins in a row.
There are six games in total, and here’s our MLS advice for the midweek schedule.
Game of the Week
New York Red Bulls +195 at Atlanta United +115
Despite there being nine places that separate New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United, the gap in points is just eight, with Atlanta also having a game in hand to play. In other words, the Five Stripes can cut the gap to two points if they win their game in hand and this game here.
It makes this match a must-win for New York as it is sitting in fourth right now with just a four-point gap on those outside the playoff spots. It's also on a three-game winless run in the MLS after a stunning 5-4 loss to the Colorado Rapids, tying with D.C. United and losing to Orlando City for the second time in three weeks.
Atlanta is technically unbeaten in its past three games, but with two ties and a win, it is sitting only one place above last in the Eastern Conference. We’re backing the Red Bulls to win here, as it feels about time they should return to winning ways.
New York Red Bulls to win 2-0 is +1500 at PointsBet.
Best Bet of the Week
Philadelphia +185 at Dallas +125
The overall table leaders take on third in the Western Conference as Philadelphia Union takes on Dallas. The Union is in excellent form once again after defeating Chicago 4-1, where four different players scored a goal.
Philadelphia has also defeated Orlando City, New England, Inter Miami, and Houston Dynamo since the start of July, scoring 19 goals in those five wins and conceding just two. There will be a bit of hope for Dallas, however, as Philadelphia also lost 3-1 to Cincinnati two weeks back.
Nevertheless, the Union looks sensational this season and Dallas has two wins in the past five games. We’re backing the Union to win this one and remain at the top of the table.
Philadelphia Union win and over 2.5 goals is +300 at FanDuel.
What the Stats Say
After a combined 49 games, 63.3% of them involving Toronto and the New England Revolution have ended with over 2.5 goals. It’s almost the same in the match between LAFC and D.C. United, with 62.5% of their combined 48 games seeing over 2.5 goals this season.
Over 3.5 goals is a rarity, but in 36% of games involving Vancouver, there have been over 3.5 goals. It plays Colorado and has seen 29.2% of games end with over 3.5 goals.
Finally, both teams to score and the game to tie has happened in 27.5% of the combined 51 games involving Philadelphia and Toronto, while only five places in the overall table separate the two ahead of that game.
Players to Watch This Week
Jesus Ferreira was at his best again in the last game against the San Jose Earthquakes, scoring twice in the 4-1 win. Ahead of playing Philadelphia, Ferreira to score first in that game is +400 at Caesars.
Shots on target has been a huge market for betting this season with an unusual amount of goals so far, and Cristian Arango and Taxiarchi Fountas lead the way as the most likely names to have 2+ shots on target this week.
This has occurred in 41.7% of matches involving D.C’s Fountas, and 37.5% of games for LAFC’s Cristian Arango. LAFC is likely to hand a starting role in the game to Gareth Bale after he didn’t start the last game — he is +350 with DraftKings to score first against D.C.
Hardest Game to Call
Colorado Rapids +170 at Vancouver Whitecaps +135
Two teams separated by one point and one position in the standings will meet in a huge game in the Western Conference as Colorado plays against Vancouver Whitecaps.
With both teams winning eight MLS games so far, there isn’t much to suggest either team can win. Vancouver has scored the fewest goals this MLS Western Conference season, but with the Rapids letting in 37 goals, too, we feel the game could go either way.
Both teams are coming into this one after seeing many goals in their previous game. Colorado defeated the Red Bulls 5-4, then defeated Minnesota United 4-3 days later. A 1-1 tie against Columbus Crew kept them in 10th in the table, while Vancouver’s recent 5-2 defeat to LA Galaxy keeps them in 11th.
We predict a tie in this one, as there’s so little separating the two.
A tie in this game is +240 with DraftKings.
Throw Ins
These are some other bets worth a look on this week’s schedule:
- Diego Rubio to score first is +500 at BetMGM.
- Both Atlanta and the Red Bulls to score in the first half is +310 at PointsBet.
- New York City to beat Charlotte 3-0 is +1100 at FanDuel.
- Gareth Bale to score first is +350 at DraftKings.
- Philadelphia Union to score first in the game against Dallas is +103 at Caesars.
Power Rankings
- LAFC ↔
- Philadelphia Union ↔
- Seattle Sounders ↑
- New York City FC ↔
- Austin FC ↓
This Week’s Schedule with Moneylines (All Times Eastern)
Tuesday
- D.C. United (+1000) at Los Angeles FC (-550), 10:30 p.m.
Wednesday
- New York Red Bulls (+195) at Atlanta United (+115), 7:30 p.m.
- New England (+240) at Toronto (-115), 7:30 p.m.
- Charlotte (+480) at New York City (-220), 8 p.m.
- Philadelphia (+185) at Dallas (+125), 9 p.m.
- Colorado Rapids (+170) at Vancouver Whitecaps (+135), 10 p.m.
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