The Most Statistically-Likely Odds In MLS Games This Weekend

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The Most Statistically-Likely Odds In MLS Games This Weekend
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The Quakes and Sporting KC to See Over 3.5 Goals in the Game (52%)

With 50 goals now gone in during matches involving the San Jose Earthquakes, they have broken the record for the most goal involvements, meaning goals scored for and against, at this stage of a Major League Soccer season. In 66.7% of their games in 2022, they’ve seen over 3.5 goals come in.

Sporting Kansas City is sitting right below them in the standings, and they are coming into this matchup just two games since losing 7-2 to the Portland Timbers. This means they have also been involved in 16 games this campaign, and if the first two months of the season are anything to go by, it’s almost certain that over 3.5 goals will happen here.

Cincinnati and the Revs to See Over 3.5 Goals in the Game (43.5%)

Sticking with the trend of high-scoring games in the MLS this season, we have a 43.5% chance to witness over 3.5 goals in the game involving FC Cincinnati and the New England Revolution.

Similarly to the Quakes, the Revs have witnessed over 3.5 goals come in during 63.6% of their games this season, and while this has happened in only 25% of games for Cincinnati, it still puts them at a combined percentage of 43.5%.

The Revs are all over the place at the moment, and their stunning Eastern Conference triumph last season almost feels like it never even happened given their torrid form in 2022. 

Across the combined 23 games involving these two teams this season, there have been 72 goals, and it would be against the odds if there weren’t to be an array of goals once more.

Both Teams to Score in Portland against Philadelphia (64%)

In what is the most statistically-likely outcome across the MLS this weekend, there is a 64% chance that both teams score in the game involving the Timbers and the Philadelphia Union.

The Union currently sit atop the Eastern Conference in what has been a fantastic start to 2022 for them, and while the Oregon team is sitting in 10th place, they've still been a part of a stunning 7-2 win over Kansas City, before losing to the Quakes 3-2.

It now means 69.2% of games have seen the Timbers witness both teams score, while the Eastern Conference leaders have had 58.3% of their games have both teams get at least one goal.

Buksa to Have 1+ Shots on Target Against Cincinnati (72.7%)

Adam Buksa, pictured, has put down an early marker for the MLS MVP award this season, as he now has six goals across the eight games he has started, meaning he has the best goals-to-minutes ratio in the MLS. The Revs star has also had at least one shot on target in eight of his 11 games in all competitions this season.

What’s more, Buksa will face a Cincinnati team that has conceded 18 times in 12 MLS outings. Buksa has also netted five goals in his past three games, which includes back-to-back doubles in his past two games against Atlanta United and, ironically, Cincinnati in the U.S Open Cup.

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Grant McQuillan

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