Betting Advice and Analysis For the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400
Denny Hamlin managed to turn around his season and cash last week’s top five prop as an outright winner at Richmond.
Hamlin was the seventh different winner this season in as many races, proving the NextGen car is achieving what it set out to do: create more parity within the field.
Now the Cup Series heads to Martinsville’s flat track that spans just over a half-mile for a Saturday night race.
Unlike the traditional 500-lap races held at the track, Saturday’s event will be 400 laps. The most similar track the NextGen cars have been on this season was the quarter-mile track that was built inside the Los Angeles Coliseum. Joey Logano held off Kyle Busch for the win in the preseason event.
Crashes and DNFs are common at short tracks such as Martinsville, which can lead to plenty of unpredictability when it comes to handicapping the race. So, how should you spend your NASCAR betting money?
The biggest key to success at Martinsville is getting in and out of the tight corners, which resemble the sharp turns seen on road courses.
Given how the NextGen car was built with road courses in mind, I feel there may be some carryover from a driver’s road course success into Saturday night.
If my best bet does take the checkered flag first, it would make eight different winners in eight races.
Chase Elliott to Win +700 FanDuel Sportsbook
Entering the first road course race with the NextGen car, Elliott had won seven of the past 15 road races.He did nothing to dispel his dominance at road courses with a fourth-place finish at the Circuit of the Americas two weeks ago and his road racing success has transitioned to Martinsville throughout his career.
In 13 races at Martinsville, he has seven Top 10s, including five Top fives. But it’s his recent run at the track that has been the most impressive part of his Martinsville career.
In the spring 2020 race, he finished fifth before winning later that year. Elliott took second in the first Martinsville race of 2021, then dominated the fall race by leading a race-high 289 laps and eventually clinching one of the final playoff spots for the championship at Phoenix.
Elliott wound up finishing 16 after being spun out with 45 laps left, but his dominance at the track was unquestioned.
Elliott’s recent success at Martinsville and his ability to succeed by outbraking his opponents through tight corners is enough for me to back him on Saturday. I like this number at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ross Chastain Top 3 (+450) DraftKings
If I’m going to ride the road course narrative to Martinsville this week, then it makes sense to back the winner at Circuit of the Americas.
Chastain led a race-high 31 of the 69 laps and provided one of the most thrilling wins of the season when he bumped A.J. Almendinger and Alex Bowman to secure the victory. That type or aggressive mindset could assist him this weekend, too.
Before the 19th-place finish at Richmond last week where he faded down the stretch, Chastain took third, second and second before the win at Circuit of the Americas.
Chastain opened at 30/1 to win on Saturday and is now down to 16/1. I'd rather take him at this number on DraftKings Sportsbook to finish in the top three, which he’s done four times already this season.
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