Betting Trends In Upcoming NBA Conference Finals
The table is set for great matchups, and solid betting opportunities, in the NBA conference finals, beginning this week.
In the NBA Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics dominated the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 7 of their hard-fought series, with a 109-81 win that covered the spread by 23 points.
The Under wager also won easily, covering the 205.5-point total by 15.5 points.
In the final game, the Celtics’ Grant Williams scored a career-high 27 points and hit seven 3-pointers. Boston set a Game 7 record with 22 3-pointers.
The Celtics are moving on and will face the No. 1 seed Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, beginning Tuesday.
This is a rematch of the East finals in 2020’s COVID-19 “bubble” season held at Walt Disney World in Florida. In that series, the Heat defeated the Celtics.
Mavs Pound Phoenix, Now Face Warriors
In the Western Conference, the Phoenix Suns embarrassed themselves, losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the final game of the series, 123-90. The home-team Suns were 6.5-point favorites. The Over wager won by 8.5 points.
At the half of this Game 7, Mavericks superstar Luka Dončić, pictured, had more points than the entire Suns team.
Dončić and teammate Spencer Dinwiddie became the eighth pair of teammates to score 30+ points in a Game 7.
They were the first duo to achieve this feat since the Los Angeles Lakers’ Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant in the 2002 Western Conference finals against the Sacramento Kings. The Lakers went on to win the NBA Championship over the New Jersey Nets in a four-game sweep.
Now, the No. 4-seed Mavericks will travel to San Francisco to take on the No. 3-seed Golden State Warriors. The first game is Wednesday.
Home Teams Look Good In Playoffs
In the playoffs this season, the home teams are 47-28 straight up and 39-36 against the spread, including a 27-46-2 Over-Under record, good for 63% winning Under bets.
Also this season, home playoff favorites are 36-12 straight up and 27-21 against the spread, including 16-31-1 Over-Under, good for 66% winning Under bets.
During this season’s playoffs, home dogs are 11-16 straight up and 12-15 against the spread, including 11-15-1 Over-Under, for 58% winning Under bets.
Top Situational Angles For NBA Conference Finals
During the previous 20 playoff seasons, home favorites are 113-55 straight up and 87-81 against the spread, including a 75-88-5 Over-Under record, for 54% winning Under wagers.
Double-digit home favorites are 10-1 straight up and 6-5 against the spread, including a 3-8 Over-Under record spanning the last 20 playoff seasons.
The lone loss occurred May 21, 2017, when the the visiting Boston Celtics defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers, 108-111, as 16.5-point favorites, which was the only loss the Cavaliers had in that Eastern Conference Finals that year. The Cavaliers lost the Warriors 4-1 in the NBA Finals.
Look For Lower Point Totals In Next Playoff Games
Over the last five playoff seasons, the point total has averaged 218 points in the NBA Conference Finals. The average total had risen for 10 consecutive seasons, until last year’s average of 218.36 points fell short of the 2020 average of 222.14 points.
In this season's conference matchups, the average total is going to be far lower, possibly around 211 points, with none of the games likely to be lined above 218 points.
Home teams with a total of 215 or fewer points are 15-8 straight up and 14-8-1 against the spread for 64% winning bets, including a 12-11 Over-Under record spanning the last five conference finals.
Keep these figures in mind when looking for NBA playoff betting opportunities.
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