NCAA Men’s Basketball Previews, Picks, and Predictions for Tuesday, March 8
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Here is tonight's 3-pointer, college basketball betting advice on three NCAA men's games.
CS Bakersfield vs. CS Northridge
- Big West Conference First Round
- Dollar Loan Center, Las Vegas
- 9 p.m. ET
The Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners will take on the Cal State Northridge Matadors in the first of two first-round matchups in the Big West Conference tournament tonight. The second game pits Cal Poly SLO Mustangs against the UC Davis Aggies.
How These Teams Stack Up
The Roadrunners are not in good form with one win in the past 13 games. They have covered the spread once in those games. That against the spread winner was a road 81-79 loss priced as a 6-point underdog on Feb. 19.
Their only win was a 61-60 road win over Cal Poly SLO, in which they failed to cover the spread priced as 1.5-point favorites. In their previous game, the Mustangs lost 66-61 at home to UC-Irvine as pushed against the spread as 5-point underdogs.
The Matadors are in the same poor shape, with six consecutive losses and covering the spread in just one. They have lost 14 of their past 16 games and are 5-11 against the spread. They are coming off a terrible 84-62 home loss to Hawaii as 6-point underdogs.
What the Betting Markets Say
A line had to be established despite difficulties anticipating where the public sentiment lies with two bad teams.
The lines makers installed the Matadors as 4.5-point favorites, and I have a sense it might go to as high as six by game time.
The total for this game opened at 127 points and has seen steady bets on the Over forcing the total to move higher to a current level of 128 points.
I do not see this total moving higher than 129.5 points, so if you like the Under in this matchup, then look to get your bet booked at 129.5 points.
Supporting Analytics
The Under is attractive in this matchup of struggling teams and is supported by a solid betting angle that has produced a 149-88 Under record, good for 63% winning bets over the past 25 basketball seasons.
The requirements are to bet the Under in neutral court settings with one of the teams getting outscored by at least four points per game on the season and are coming off four games in which they scored 65 or fewer points in each one.
This system is 3-0 this season so I am going to the window for a 3% wager on the Under and will look to get 129.5 points.
Syracuse vs. Florida State
- ACC First Round
- Barclays Center, Brooklyn
- Wednesday, Noon ET
The Syracuse Orange face the Florida State Seminoles in an ACC first-round matchup at Noon ET on Wednesday. The winner of this game gets top-seeded Duke Blue.
The markets opened this game with the Seminoles as a 1-point favorite and with a posted total of 147.5 points.
BetMGM Sportsbook has moved the line to make the Seminoles a 1.5-point favorite and I agree with that line movement.
Trends and Angles is Always Revealing
I like the Over wager in this matchup and is supported by the following game situational trends and angles.
The Orange are 26-21 Over when competing against a team with a winning record in games played over the past three seasons.
The Seminoles are 17-6 Over when facing a team that is making an average of eight or more 3-pointers per game and are 9-1 Over when facing that type of 3-point shooting team after game number 15 in each of the past two seasons.
I am going to the window for a 3% wager on the Over.
Stanford vs. Arizona State
- Pac-12 Conference First Round
- T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET
The Stanford Cardinal will meet the Arizona State Sun Devils in a Pac-12 first-round matchup at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The winner will play top-seeded Arizona.
With both teams possessing near equal records on the season this matchup is expected to be extremely competitive and entertaining.
Breaking Down the Numbers
The Sun Devils opened as 2.5-point favorites and have seen steady support that forced the line to move to -3 points in early betting action. The total opened at 126.5 points and has remained at that level.
Stanford went 15-15 straight-up and covered the spread in 13 of those 30 games. It struggled down the stretch, going 2-8 straight-up and a money-losing 4-6 against the spread.
The Cardinal struggled even more on the road, posting a 3-9 straight-up record while covering the spread in five of those 12 games.
Arizona State went 14-16 straight-up and 16-13-1 against the spread for the season and like the Cardinal struggled mightily down the stretch of the regular season. Entering this matchup, the Devils have won and covered just two of their past 10 games.
Trends and Angles is Always Revealing
Despite being just 1-5 against the spread over their past six games, the Cardinal is an impressive 5-1 against the spread in their last six neutral court games.
They are coming off a 65-56 loss to Arizona State and failed to cover the spread as 6-point road underdogs. However, they are 5-1 against the spread following a game they failed to cover the spread.
As mentioned, the Sun Devils are coming off a win against the Cardinal in their previous game and are on a strong 10-3 against the spread win streak following a straight-up win.
I like the Cardinal in this rematch of PAC-12 teams as a 3% wager.
The Cardinal coach Jerod Haase is a strong 16-3-1 against the spread when revenging a loss to the current opponent and scored fewer than 60 points in that loss.
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