College Football Picks: Betting Advice for Week 6
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There are some interesting games in college football this weekend, with matchups against Top 25 teams and a few rivalry games.
Let's jump right into the college football betting advice for Saturday's games.
No. 8 Tennessee at No. 25 LSU
Noon ET, ESPN
Line: Vols -3 | Total: 65 points
A line favoring the Volunteers by 3 points and a total of 65 points implies a 34-31 Volunteers win. My predictive model shows a high probability that the Volunteers will score at least 31 points, will have the edge in time of possession and will have the same number of turnovers as, or fewer turnovers than, LSU in this game.
- The Volunteers are 30-1 straight-up (SU) and 23-7-1 against the spread (ATS) for 77% winning bets, including a strong 22-7-1 Over-Under record when scoring 31 or more points; have the same number of turnovers as the opponent or fewer; and had more time of possession (TOP) in games played over the past 15 seasons.
- The Tigers are 2-12 SU and 2-11-1 ATS for 15% winning bets, including a 10-4 Over-Under record when allowing 31 or more points, having no edge in TOP, and having the same number of turnovers as the opponent or more in games played over the past 15 seasons.
I am betting Tennessee -3 points as offered at BetMGM.
Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama
8 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: Tide -24 | Total: 51 points
Alabama's (5-0, 2-0 Southeastern Conference) biggest concern this week is the status of quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, who suffered a sprained right shoulder in a 49-24 win over Arkansas last week. The lines are telling me that he will start Saturday.
Even with Young sidelined in the second quarter, the Crimson Tide gained 555 total yards behind an impressive offensive line performance. The Aggies' defense must play to its potential to have any hope of pulling off a shocking upset.
Situational Trends and Angles
- Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher is 18-7-1 ATS after playing two consecutive conference games.
- Fisher is 21-9-1 ATS following a game in which his defense forced no more than one turnover.
- Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban is just 14-26 ATS in home games after his defense allowed seven or fewer points in the first half of each of its previous two games.
I am betting the Texas A&M Aggies +24 points, offered at BetMGM.
Quick Kicks
Here are a few additional games on my radar
Bet on North Carolina over the Miami Hurricanes
- Bet 50% of your bet amount before kickoff, then add the remaining 50% on North Carolina +7.5 or more during first-half only.
Bet on Wisconsin -9.5 over Northwestern
Bet the Under at 67.5 points or anything over 70 points live in-game in the Texas-Oklahoma game.
- Betting public is betting the Over with reckless abandon, accounting for 77% of the tickets and 82% of the money. Total is currently at 65.5 points, and I see the potential to continue rising to 67.5 points prior to kickoff.
I have a 9-1 against the spread (ATS) record in college football and am 20-6 ATS in the @Gambling_com sports betting contest . Be sure to give @Gambling_com a follow on Twitter and ring the bell so you never miss a new release or any of the video clips providing best bets backed by highly profitable trends, angles and systems across all major sports.
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