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NFL Betting Advice: Preseason Week 4 Picks

NFL Betting Advice: Preseason Week 4 Picks
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After a 6-3-1 record for 67% against the spread (ATS) winning bets in our first three weeks of NFL preseason picks, we’re back to break down the NFL Week 4 preseason games. 

Let’s get right into it to help with your NFL betting.

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Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers

Panthers -6.5 | Total: 40 points

Today, 7 p.m. ET

The Bills are on a 10-game preseason winning streak that started in 2018. Buffalo has played well in the first two preseason games and has no reason to subject any starter or significant backup to injury in this preseason finale. 

Panthers coach Matt Rhule said this week that starters will play well into the second quarter and named Baker Mayfield the starting quarterback for this game. 

Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the preseason in a non-conference matchup and facing an opponent that is coming off a home win has earned a 23-6-1 ATS record, good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

I am on the Carolina Panthers minus the points and expect a double-digit win.

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Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins

Dolphins -1.5 | Total: 37.5 points

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET

The Dolphins canceled practice Thursday out of "an abundance of caution" because of a non-COVID illness. That meant the Eagles practiced alone at the Hard Rock Stadium.

There is an outside possibility that this game could be canceled because of a suspected stomach bug affecting many of Miami's players. 

I liked the Eagles even before this information came out. Betting on road teams in the preseason that are coming off a straight-up (SU) win is 52-23 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

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Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns

Browns -5 | Total: 42 points

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET

The Browns will start Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in his first preseason action. Brissett has been tabbed to fill in for Deshaun Watson while he serves his 11-game NFL suspension. 

Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski was vague in his answers to questions about how long Brissett and the first unit will be in the game, but I cannot imagine them playing into the second quarter. He did say that backup quarterbacks Joshua Dobbs and Josh Rosen will see action.

I like the Bears in this dress rehearsal matchup. Betting on road teams facing an opponent that allowed seven or more yards per pass attempt in their previous game has produced a 27-8-1 ATS record good, for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Bet the Bears and take the five points.

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Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens

Ravens -6 | Total: 39.5 points

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET

I am on the Baltimore Ravens in this preseason finale, given John Harbaugh’s record in the preseason. 

Check out the following Harbaugh coaching trends and you will immediately see why you bet on and not fade the Ravens.

  • Harbaugh is 11-1, making 11.5 units on the moneyline, following two or more consecutive ATS wins.
  • Harbaugh is 28-4, making 25.5 units on the moneyline, in preseason games played on grass fields.
  • Harbaugh is 42-12, making 31 units on the moneyline, in all preseason games.
  • Harbaugh is 21-10, making 9.8 units on the first half moneyline, following two consecutive ATS wins.
  • The Commanders are 3-15 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

I am on the Ravens, splitting my bet to 50% on the first-half ATS line and 50% on the full-game ATS line. 

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Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers -4.5 | Total: 38.5 points

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET

First-round draft pick Kenny Pickett has impressed the Steelers coaching staff this preseason and has made a big push to earn the starting quarterback job. 

He was third on the depth chart before preseason, behind veterans Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. Being third on the depth chart was just for show to create a sense of quarterback competition, but I always believed Pickett would be the starting quarterback in Week 1.

I am betting on the Under in this game. Betting the Under with a team like the Lions, which committed no more than one turnover in their previous game and is now facing a team that committed no more than one turnover in each of their two last games, has produced a 78-33-2 Under record, good for 70% winning bets over the previous 10 preseasons.

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