Thursday Night Football Picks: Can Houston Ground the High-Flying Eagles?

Date IconLast Updated: Oct 3rd, 2023
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Thursday Night Football Picks: Can Houston Ground the High-Flying Eagles?
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To help with your NFL betting, here is our advice for the Thursday Night Football game.


Best Prop Bet Picks for Tonight's Game

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
Unibet +105 Texans’ Ka‘imi Fairbairn Over 5.5 kicking points
Caesars -115 Eagles’ A.J. Brown Over 67.5 receiving yards
BetMGM -115 Ravens’ Lamar Jackson Under 62.5 rushing yards –115

For the season, player prop bets are 37-24 for 61% winning bets, making $1,030 per $50 bet. 

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans 

8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Line: Eagles -14 | Total: 45 points 

I am betting on the Eagle -14 points as offered at BetMGM.

On paper, the Eagles (7-0 straight-up (SU), 5-2 against-the-spread (ATS), 4-3 Over-Under) at Texans (1-5-1 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 3-4 Over-Under) is a monumental mismatch. 

Philadelphia ranks third-best in scoring offense, averaging 28 points per game, and will be going up against the 17th-ranked scoring defense in the Texans, allowing 22 points per game. 

The Eagles rank fourth with an efficient offensive yards per point ratio of 15.18, while the Texans are a mediocre 18th, sporting a 19.52 yards per point ratio. 

A big advantage for the Eagles' offense in this matchup will be on the ground, as the Texans rank last, allowing 86 rushing yards per game. 

Miles Sanders can be expected to get a higher-than-average number of carries tonight, but also considers Over rushing yards gained with Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and even Trey Sermon. 

Situational Trends and Angles 

  • The Texans are 13-28 against the spread (ATS) in home games when facing a foe that is averaging 7.5 or fewer yards per punt return.
  • The Texans are 18-33 ATS when facing good offensive teams scoring 27 or more points per game.
  • The Texans are 19-38 ATS when facing good offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards per game.
  • The Texans are 3-12 ATS after losing two out of the last three games in the previous three seasons.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season. Let’s Go!