The Most Statistically-Likely Bets on the EPL's Final Day of the Season

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 28th, 2022
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The Most Statistically-Likely Bets on the EPL's Final Day of the Season
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Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score (31.6%)

Manchester City will welcome Aston Villa to the Etihad on the final day of the season, as Pep Guardiola’s team aims to retain the Premier League title. To do that, they’ll simply need to match the result of Liverpool, who meet the Wolves.

City has scored a stunning 96 goals in 37 games this campaign, and has scored 21 times in the past five league games alone. On the other hand, Villa has netted 50 and let in 51, and with their 1-1 draw with Burnley in midweek, and given the crazy nature of the Premier League this season, Steven Gerrard’s team could get a goal.

Leicester and Southampton to See Over 3.5 Goals in Their Game (39.6%)

Leicester City will be aiming to finish eighth on the final day of the season, just as Southampton merely plods its way to the campaign’s end in what has been another underwhelming season for them.

The Saints cannot improve on their 15th-placed finish of last season, and once again, they sit with the worst defensive record in the league for those outside of the relegation zone, as they’ve conceded 63 times. 

This poor defensive display throughout the season has meant that 40.9% of Southampton games have seen over 3.5 goals, with 39.6% witnessing over 3.5 goals across the combined games between the two clubs.

With not much to play for on the final day for either side, there could be goals once more.

Raphinha to Score First Against Brentford (17.1%)

Leeds will need every player at 100% on the final day of the season when they meet with Brentford, as a defeat would spell the end of their two-year stay in the Premier League. The Whites are level on points with Burnley, but they sit in the relegation zone by goals difference, meaning they must simply better the result of the Clarets, who meet with Newcastle United.

Raphinha has once again been one of the main players for Leeds this season, and he has 10 goals this campaign. Seven of these goals have come as the first goal in the game, and with all eyes on him to drag Leeds out of this mess, he could well get goal number 11. Moreover, Brentford has nothing to play for but a top-half finish, and they've also conceded 54 times in 37 league games.

Son to Have 2+ Shots on Target Against Norwich (30.8%)

Son Heung-min will be targeting the Golden Boot on the final day of the season with him trailing Mohamed Salah, pictured, by one goal in the goalscoring charts. Now, against the worst team in the Premier League, Norwich City, the Tottenham Hotspur superstar could well get the job done.

Son has 21 league goals this season, and better yet for the forward, he has the most goals in the Premier League from open play, with Salah netting a chunk of his 22 through penalties.

While Harry Kane is statistically more likely (34.6%) to achieve 2+ shots on target, unlike Son, he isn’t chasing the Golden Boot, which only adds to the likelihood the South Korean will keep on aiming for the target.