UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria Picks and Analysis
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The UFC arrives back in Florida for the second time this year with a mouthwatering featherweight main event that is likely to find the next title contender at 145 pounds.
Four other fights make up a great card for this Fight Night, and to help with your UFC betting, we’ve put together our picks for the weekend and all the betting analysis.
Brendan Allen vs. Bruno Silva
A knockout artist meets with a jiu-jitsu specialist at middleweight where Brendan Allen and Bruno Silva bring to the table 37 finishes and a combined 44 wins.
Needless to say, we expect this one not to go the distance, but we give the edge to Allen. The American is on a four-fight win streak and has only lost to Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland in his 10 fights in the UFC and even defeated names like Kevin Holland Krzysztof Jotko in this time via rear-naked chokes.
What's more, after registering another rear-naked choke win against Andre Muniz, Allen now has 12 of his 21 wins via submission, while Silva has seen six of his eight defeats come via submission, too.
He most recently lost last year to Gerald Meerschaert via a guillotine choke, and this inferiority in the grappling department likely hands Allen the win.
Brendan Allen by submission is +175 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
David Onama vs. Gabriel Santos
This one is huge battle at featherweight with only one loss in their respective careers keeping these two from having the same record in professional MMA.
That one extra loss comes for Onama after he lost to Nate Landwehr via unanimous decision last August, while Mason Jones also beat him on his UFC debut. It means he comes into this one with a 2-2 record in the UFC after beating Gabriel Benitez with an incredible knockout in round one, as he also defeated Garrett Armfield with a slick arm triangle.
Santos also lost his UFC debut in a controversial split decision defeat to Lerone Murphy back in March. It was his first and only loss in MMA after putting together a commendable record of three KO/TKO wins, four submissions victories and a further three wins via decision.
Onama has not seen any of his wins reach the judges' scorecards and his desire to get the finish likely forces Santos to be much more tactical in this fight. The Brazilian showed his smart striking against Murphy, but his lack of mixing it up with some takedown attempts handed him the loss.
Santos must be much wiser in this fight, or Onama could get another finish, and we think the fight ends before the final bell once more.
Fight to not go the distance is -176 with Unibet Sportsbook.
Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa
Two massive heavyweights are set to battle further up the card with Austen Lane making his UFC debut and Justin Tafa aims for a record of four wins and three defeats in the UFC.
Lane has been a professional fighter since 2017 after surprisingly ending his NFL career in 2015 at 28. At 6-feet-6 and spending his football career as a defensive end, Lane is stunningly strong and a ginormous man, even for a heavyweight.
At the same time, Tafa is the only man in UFC history to miss weight at heavyweight and it is believed that the Australian walks around with a weight close to 300 lbs.
Ultimately, this is two of the heaviest men on the roster meeting in the octagon. What’s more, 11 of Lane’s 12 victories have all been by KO/TKO, so it’s clear to see how this one ends. Lane is also six inches taller and after winning his past six fights before the final bell, we’re picking him.
Austen Lane by KO/TKO is +280 with Caesars Sportsbook.
Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber
With 12 wins each, Maycee Barber and Amanda Ribas are looking to take a giant leap toward the top five in the women's flyweight rankings.
Barber has put together a fantastic four-fight win streak since losing to the current champion, Alexa Grasso, as she has defeated Miranda Maverick, Montana De La Rosa, Jessica Eye and Andrea Lee all on points. It now also means five wins via knockout and five through submission for the No. 11-ranked Barber.
Ribas is set to fight in just her third fight at flyweight after beating Viviane Araújo in his last fight after a narrow loss to Katlyn Chookagian. Elsewhere at flyweight, she also defeated Paige VanZant with an incredible armbar in round one.
Ribas no doubt boasts of better ability in the grappling department with a black belt in judo and jiu-jitsu, and this forces us to give her the edge in this one, and we think she will toss Barber around and lock in a submission.
Amanda Ribas by submission is +500 with BetMGM Sportsbook.
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
What a main event we have this weekend.
As far as matchmaking goes at featherweight outside of a title fight, for us, it doesn’t get much more intriguing than this one. Ultimately, we have the hardest-hitting featherweight, Josh Emmett, taking on one of the most well-rounded fighters at 145 pounds, Ilia Topuria.
It's been a sensational career so far for Topuria. The Spanish fighter arrived in the UFC with a comfortable decision win over Youssef Zalal on his debut, before brutally knocking out Damon Jackson, Ryan Hall and Jai Herbert in his next three fights.
After one of the knockouts of the year against Herbert, stunningly, Topuria secured an arm-triangle submission against one of the best grapplers at featherweight, Bryce Mitchell.
In truth, there are not many better fighters around than Topuria when it comes to mixing up the skills of grappling, striking and fighting IQ. However, he does face the phenomenal power of Emmett this Saturday.
Emmett, in our opinion, should have received a loss in his decision win over Calvin Katter after being outclassed for at least three rounds. The American then lost to Yair Rodriguez for the interim lightweight title and this recent run no doubt hands Topuria the advantage at -350.
As he is the clear favorite, it's merely about picking his method to win, but with just one of his 13 wins coming on points from his unbeaten record, we think he'll get the job done before the end of the fifth round.
Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO or submission is -280 with FanDuel Sportsbook.
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