2023 Tour de France Stage 5 Picks & Predictions: Alaphilippe Can Relive Former Glory

Date IconLast Updated: Jul 25th, 2023
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2023 Tour de France Stage 5 Picks & Predictions: Alaphilippe Can Relive Former Glory
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2023 Tour de France 2023 Stage 5 Picks

 

 

Following two grueling days of tackling hills in the Spanish Basque Country, Stage 5 presents no respite for the exhausted riders as they enter the Pyrenees for the first of two stages in this mountain range. 

The initial stages have primarily been about survival for the General Classification contenders, rather than flourishing. However, a shift occurs at this point, and while it is improbable that any decisive moves for the overall Tour victory will take place, we can expect several ambitious attempts for glory to come to an end.

It's also worth keeping an eye on those who might aim to secure a place in the breakaway and with Mountains Classification points up for grabs, there is a strong incentive for riders to strive for a prominent position in the mountainous terrain.

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2023 Tour de France Stage Five: Pau to Laruns (162.7km) 

 

Julian Alaphilippe

 

Spanning a relatively short distance of 162.7km, this stage commences on a milder note, featuring approximately 70km of flat to rolling roads as the race embarks southwest from Pau towards the intermediate sprint in Lanne-en-Barétous..

The centerpiece of this stage is the formidable super-category climb, Col de Soudet, spanning 15km with an average gradient of 7.2%. Positioned at the midpoint of the stage, it is followed by two more categorized climbs before a 20km descent towards the finish.

The final ascent, the Col de Marie Blanque, may appear deceptively manageable on the stage profile, but it holds hidden challenges. The last 4km of the climb presents steep ramps exceeding 14%, posing a significant threat to any breakaway attempts as the lead could quickly dwindle on its demanding slopes. In-play bettors should take note of this pivotal section.

2023 Tour de France Stage Five: The Favorites

At the top of the betting, Tadej Pogacar (+225) and Jonas Vingegaard (+900)  continue to assert their dominance in the race after their impressive performances in Stage 1 and Stage 2. and it comes as no surprise that they are leading the market. 

While the odds might appear intriguing if either of them had the motivation to target a stage victory, it is challenging to envision many scenarios where they would exhibit the necessary aggressiveness early on in the Tour to make either of them a valuable selection.

2023 Tour de France Stage Five: The Contenders

Considering the resemblance of this stage to the 2021 Mont Ventoux day, which was triumphed by Wout van Aert, it is unsurprising to find him positioned near the top of certain rankings. However, the nature of the climbing on this stage differs significantly: the exceedingly steep slopes of the Marie Blanque are unlikely to align with his strengths.

On the other hand, Tom Pidcock (+2200) will relish such demanding gradients, and his exceptional descending skills, well-regarded since his Stage 11 victory last year, could allow him to establish a gap on the final climb that would be arduous for pursuers to close. Nevertheless, expect Pidcock to bide his time and save his bid for stage glory until later in the race. Currently, he holds a prominent position in the General Classification, which may limit the freedom he desires from other contenders for the Yellow Jersey.

2023 Tour de France Day 5 Picks & Predictions: Julian Alaphilippe to Win (+2000)

Julian Alaphilippe (+2000) claimed victory on similar stages in 2018 and displayed a return to top form during the Dauphine. If things go his way today, there's no reason why he can't repeat that success once again here and he can be backed at +2000 via The Draftkings Sportsbook

 


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The 2023 Tour de France commences on Saturday, July 1 and runs until Sunday, July 23. There will be 21 stages, spanning a total of 3,404 kilometers (2,115 miles). The race gets underway this year in Bilbao, Spain and will finish up as usual in Paris. Jonas Vingegaard, a 26-year-old from Denmark, is the defending champion.