Best MLB Bets & Picks Today 07/28: Phillies, Giants, Mets, Mariners
Best MLB Bets & Picks Today 07/28
- ⭐ Philadelphia to win on the moneyline (-158) at Fanduel Sportsbook
- ⭐ San Fransisco to win on the moneyline (-148) at BetMGM Sportsbook
- ⭐ NY Mets to win on the moneyline (-198) at Fanduel Sportsbook
- ⭐ Mariners to win on the moneyline (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook
There's a stacked slate of MLB games on Friday night with 15 matches taking place. With less than a week to go until the trade deadline, there's plenty at stake for both teams and players - who will be looking to enhance their postseason chances in the second half of the season with playoff spots up for grabs
In this article, we will share our best MLB bets today, giving you insights into the thrilling outcomes to anticipate. Plus, you have the opportunity to sign up with some of the best online betting sites in the U.S., including BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can claim generous offers of up to $1,200 in bonus bets.
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Best MLB Bets & Picks Today: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
As the trading deadline approaches with just under a week left, the Pirates find themselves in a challenging position. Despite their impressive start with a 20-9 record through April, their performance has taken a downturn since then, playing at a 55-win pace (25-48). As a result, they have started making moves, starting with trading Carlos Santana to the Brewers, in exchange for a promising 18-year-old prospect.
Now, the team is considering dealing their All-Star pitchers, closer David Bednar and Friday starter Mitch Keller. Both players have multiple years of team control remaining, making them attractive assets on the trade market.
Keller's recent performances in July have been somewhat concerning, with an ERA of 7.04 and a declining command. However, his overall season-long metrics still stand as career-best numbers, with a 18.6% K-BB% and a 3.72 xERA. There are indications that he can bounce back with improved command, which hasn't been a significant issue for him historically.
Comparatively, Zack Wheeler stands out as a top performer in pitching modeling metrics among qualified starters, ranking second, while Keller is placed sixteenth. Lowering the threshold to 40 innings, they move to third and twenty-eighth positions, respectively, among 161 qualified starters.
In terms of offensive strength, Philadelphia has an advantage over Pittsburgh, ranking 18th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, whereas the Pirates sit at 25th. The Phillies also fare better in bullpen performance, being placed seventh in reliever xFIP compared to the Pirates' 21st rank. However, Pittsburgh holds an edge in defense, ranking 13th with +13 Defensive Runs Saved ("DRS"), whereas Philadelphia is 24th with -15 DRS. Still, the Phillies make up some ground with their baserunning value, being placed seventh compared to the Pirates' 17th rank.
Best Betting Pick: Philadelphia to win on the moneyline (-158)
Best MLB Bets & Picks Today: Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants
On Wednesday, the Boston Red Sox secured a notable 5-3 victory over the dominant Atlanta Braves, who hold the best record in the majors. This win improved the Red Sox's overall record to 55-47 for the season. They completed a two-game home series sweep against Atlanta and extended their winning streak to four games. Currently, Boston sits a game and a half behind the Toronto Blue Jays, who occupy the final wild card spot in the American League.
Since the All-Star break, the Red Sox have shown strong offensive performances, boasting a slash line of .284/.341/.515, along with 22 extra-base hits, 21 home runs, and 65 runs scored in 377 at-bats. Triston Casas and Rafael Devers have been key contributors to the 21 home runs, with a combined total of 11. Additionally, Justin Turner has been impressive with five doubles, three home runs, and 14 RBI during the team's last 11 games.
Looking ahead to Friday's game, the Red Sox will entrust Cutter Crawford as their starting pitcher. Crawford, a 27-year-old right-hander, holds a 4-5 record with a 4.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 69/17 K/BB ratio in 11 starts and eight relief appearances this season. Since joining Boston's starting rotation in early June, Crawford has maintained a 3-3 record with a less inspiring 4.43 ERA, 4.24 FIP, and .761 opposing OPS across 40.2 innings of work in nine starts.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants put an end to their six-game losing streak with a narrow 2-1 victory over the Oakland Athletics last Tuesday. They followed up with an 8-3 win on Wednesday, completing a two-game series sweep and elevating their record to 56-47 for the season. The Giants currently stand second in the NL West, trailing the LA Dodgers by three games. Moreover, they hold the top wild card spot in the National League.
Since the All-Star break, the Giants have faced some struggles offensively, posting the lowest OPS in the majors. Their batting average is a disappointing .192/.281/.338, accompanied by 22 doubles, 13 home runs, and 51 runs scored in 417 at-bats over the past two weeks. Wilmer Flores stands out as a standout performer with 14 hits in 38 at-bats, including five doubles, five home runs, and eight RBI in his last 12 games. Notably, Flores holds a 149 OPS+ against left-handed pitchers and a 131 OPS+ against right-handed pitchers in 2023.
Taking the mound for the Giants on Friday will be Logan Webb, a 26-year-old right-hander. Webb has compiled an 8-8 record with a 3.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 136/24 K/BB ratio in 21 starts this season, totaling 134.1 innings pitched. In his last outing against the Washington Nationals, Webb faced a challenging game, conceding six earned runs on five hits and a walk, lasting only four outs in a tough 10-1 defeat at Nationals Park.
Best Betting Pick: San Fransisco to win on the moneyline (-148)
Best MLB Bets & Picks Today: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Following the all-star break, the Washington Nationals showed some improvement and played some of their best baseball this season. However, in the series opener against the Mets on Thursday, they fell short in a tight 2-1 game characterized by excellent pitching, clutch hitting from the opposing team, and a rain delay. The loss brought their record to 43-60, placing them 12.5 games behind in the NL Wild Card race and holding a 2.5-game lead over Colorado for the worst record in the NL.
Leading the Nationals in various categories is Lane Thomas, with an impressive 118 hits, a batting average of .290, 16 home runs, and 54 RBIs. Jeimer Candelario also boasts 16 homers and 52 RBIs while recording a team-high 29 doubles. On the other hand, Luis Garcia and CJ Abrams share the team-high of 4 triples this season. Taking the mound for the Nationals will be MacKenzie Gore, who holds a 6-7 record, a 4.37 ERA, and 122 strikeouts this season.
The New York Mets, on the other hand, rebounded from their Subway Series loss with a victory in a rain-soaked affair on the same Thursday. This win brought their overall record to 48-54, but they still trail 7 games behind the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Key players for the Mets include Pete Alonso, leading the team with 28 home runs and 68 RBIs, and Brandon Nimmo, who has a team-best 100 hits with a .258 batting average. Francisco Lindor also contributes with 19 home runs and 62 RBIs for the Mets this season, along with a team-best 22 doubles. Taking the mound for the Mets will be Max Scherzer, entering the game with a record of 8-4, a 4.20 ERA, and 114 strikeouts this season.
Best Betting Pick: NY Mets to win on the moneyline (-198)
Best MLB Bets & Picks Today: Seattle Mariners vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The Seattle Mariners (52-50) will begin a 3-game series on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks (55-48) at Chase Field. This will be the first meeting between the two teams since 2021 when the Mariners emerged victorious, winning the series 4-2.
The Mariners have been performing well lately, starting their 6-game road trip with 2 wins out of 3 games against the Minnesota Twins. They are on a two-game winning streak and have won 5 of their last 7 matches. Currently, they hold the 4th place in the AL West, trailing the division-leading Texas Rangers by 7 1/2 games.
As for the Diamondbacks, they suffered an 11-7 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, resulting in a 2-1 series defeat. Their recent form has been disappointing, with 6 losses in their last 7 games and a record of 5-14 in their last 19 matches.
The Diamondbacks are placed 3rd in the NL West, sitting 4 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, and are a half-game away from the final NL Wild Card spot.
The Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 road games, but still are 23-25 on the road this season. And while Arizona has struggled recently, losing 6 out of their last 7 and 14 of their last 19 games, they are still 27-26 at home.
Gilbert is 6-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 11 road starts. Henry has a 3.00 ERA in 8 games at Chase Field this season. The Diamondbacks have lost 4 of their last 6 series openers but had won 8 of their previous 10 openers.
Best Betting Pick: Mariners to win on the moneyline (-135)
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