Best MLB Bets Today: Braves vs Phillies Daily Best Bets, Picks & Predictions 10/12
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Braves vs. Phillies NLDS Game 4 Picks & Predictions
- ⭐ Pick 1: Under 8 Runs (-110) at BetMGM
- ⭐ Pick 2: Braves ML (-150) at Caesars
- ⭐ Pick 3: Ronald Acuña Jr Over 1.5 Hits (+185) at DraftKings
The Atlanta Braves are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies for Game 4 of the NLDS at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday..
Currently leading 2-1 in the series after an emphatic 10-2 win on Wednesday, the Phillies have a chance to secure the series with a victory.
Representing the Braves on the mound will be Spencer Strider (20-5), while the Phillies will have Ranger Suarez (4-6) as their starting pitcher.
Although the Braves are playing on the Phillies' turf, they're favored with odds of -156, while the Phillies stand at +130. The expected total runs for the game are set at 8.5.
We've used the best online betting sites to find these bets, including BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings.
Below are our top three MLB predictions for today’s slate.
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Braves vs. Phillies Game 3 Recap: Phillies won 10-2
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the brink of advancing to the National League Championship Series.
On Wednesday evening at Citizens Bank Park, Bryce Harper's twin home runs, coupled with four other homers, powered the Phillies to a decisive 10-2 victory over the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the Division Series.
With this win, Philadelphia takes a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series while a win on Thursday would secure their spot in the NLCS.
Braves vs. Phillies: Pitching Matchup Game 4
The Braves are set to give the nod to Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86 ERA) versus the Phillies and Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18 ERA).
Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86 ERA) vs Ranger Suárez (4-6, 4.18 ERA)
In Atlanta's Game 1 defeat, Strider limited the Phillies to two runs over seven innings. His only major blip against Philadelphia was when he conceded five runs in 2 1/3 innings during the 2022 NLDS Game 3. This performance came after a 26-day hiatus due to a left oblique strain. Notably, Strider holds a 1.90 ERA from eight career games against the Phillies, restricting them to one run during his latest appearance at Citizens Bank Park on Sept. 13.
In Game 1 against the Braves, Suárez delivered 3 2/3 scoreless innings, permitting only one hit and walk. He exited early due to Philadelphia's strategy of utilizing their powerful bullpen. This tactic led to Atlanta's first home shutout since Aug. 28, 2021. For Game 4, a similar approach with Suárez might be employed before transitioning to the bullpen.
Braves vs Phillies Betting Trends
- The Braves have won 97, or 64.2%, of the 151 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- Atlanta has a record of 71-33, a 68.3% win rate, when favored by -153 or more by bookmakers this season.
- The Braves have a 60.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- The Phillies have been victorious in 24, or 46.2%, of the 52 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- This year, Philadelphia has won four of 14 games when listed as at least +130 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Phillies have a 43.5% chance of walking away with the win.
Best Over/Under Bets Today: Braves vs. Phillies
⭐ Under 8 Runs (-110) at BetMGM
The Phillies and Braves are closely contested, yet Strider's participation brings a different element to the pivotal Game 4.
Suárez demonstrated in Game 1 that he's effective in the early innings before transitioning to the bullpen.
Consequently, the under appears viable and could be set at 7.5 (-120).
⭐ Best MLB Pick: Under 8 Runs (-110) at BetMGM
Best Moneyline Bets Today: Braves vs. Phillies
The Braves, with odds at -150, are favored on the road, thanks to their Cy Young contender on the mound while Philadelphia stands at +130,
That's probably because Suarez's previous good performance isn't compelling enough to inspire confidence.
Expect the Phillies to rotate their pitchers frequently in this one and there's a chance Suarez might not last long on the mound as deploying him twice in one series might backfire for Philadelphia.
While the Braves benefit from facing Suarez again, Philadelphia's repeated encounter with Strider might not offer them any advantage due to his superior skill set.
⭐ Best MLB Pick: Braves ML (-150) at Caesars
Best Player Prop Bets Today: Braves vs. Phillies
⭐ Ronald Acuña Jr Over 1.5 Hits (+185) at DraftKings
Following his recent 2-for-5 performance, which included a double, Ronald Acuna Jr. eyes another productive outing on Thursday.
Acuna shines as the Braves' top batter with a .337 average, boasting 41 home runs—ranking fifth in MLB—and 106 RBI, placing him eighth.
In this season's 162 games, he's secured a hit in 77.2% of them, with multiple hits in 43.2%. Remarkably, he's homered in nearly 23% of his games, with homers in 5.6% of his at-bats.
Additionally, he's crossed the plate 104 times, including 37 multi-run games.
⭐ Best MLB Pick: Ronald Acuña Jr Over 1.5 Hits (+185) at DraftKings
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