Best NFL Over/Under Bets & NFL Picks for Thursday Night Football Steelers vs. Patriots

Date IconLast Updated: Dec 14th, 2023
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Best NFL Over/Under Bets & NFL Picks for Thursday Night Football Steelers vs. Patriots
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Steelers vs. Patriots Best NFL Over/Under Bets and NFL Picks


Thursday night's game in Pittsburgh features Bailey Zappe versus Mitchell Trubisky, with an exceptionally low projected total score.

The New England Patriots, currently at 2–10, suffered their fifth consecutive loss last week, marking the third game in a row where their defense conceded 10 points or less. 

Despite this, they lost to the Chargers in a surprising 6–0 game, where the Chargers, favored by 5.5 points on the road, managed to beat the spread. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers, with a 7–5 record, faced a 24–10 defeat against the Cardinals and also lost their quarterback Kenny Pickett due to a high ankle sprain that necessitated surgery.

Thursday Night Football action provides many opportunities when it comes to NFL Over/Under Bets and NFL Picks.

Using the best online betting sites here are our top three Steelers vs. Patriots NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 14.

NFL Over/Under Bets 1: UNDER 30 Points

⭐ UNDER 30 Points (-115) at BetMGM

The Pittsburgh Steelers' offense remains unimpressive, even after the departure of Matt Canada. 

In their last two games without Canada, the Steelers averaged a mere 13 points per game, despite facing bottom-ten defenses. 

This lackluster performance raises concerns, especially as they now face the Patriots' top-ten defense, potentially exacerbating their offensive struggles. 

Similarly, the New England Patriots' offense is struggling, matching Pittsburgh's woes. 

Despite their defense limiting opponents to 10 or fewer points in three consecutive games, the Patriots lost all three, a rarity not seen since the 1938 Arizona Cardinals. 

With no signs of a turnaround, especially against Steelers' stars T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Patriots' offense is unlikely to find its rhythm in the upcoming game.

⭐ Best NFL PicksUNDER 30 Points (-115) at BetMGM

NFL Over/Under Bets 2: Mitchell Trubisky Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns

⭐ Mitchell Trubisky UNDER 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+180)  at Caesars

The low total for the game indicates that touchdowns may be scarce. 

The Steelers have a tendency to rely on their running game in the red zone. This season, they have scored seven out of 11 touchdowns from within the 20-yard line via rushing.

In their last five scoring plays, four have been on the ground, including three of four from inside the red zone. While Trubisky did score a touchdown pass against the Cardinals on Sunday, the circumstances of the game likely influenced this outcome.

Considering the Patriots' defense has allowed only two touchdowns in their last three games – one rushing and one passing – the expectation for a high-scoring game seems unlikely.

⭐ Best NFL PicksMitchell Trubisky UNDER 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+180) at Caesars

NFL Over/Under Bets 3: Jaylen Warren UNDER 42.5 Rushing Yards

⭐ Jaylen Warren UNDER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings

Warren has been in good form lately, but he faces a tough challenge against the Patriots' formidable rushing defense. 

In four of their last five games, New England has held opponents to less than 80 rushing yards and currently ranks third in Pro Football Focus's run defense grades. 

While the Steelers excel in their running game, ranking second in rushing yards per attempt, Warren has shown inconsistency against top-tier defenses. 

He averages 59.2 yards per game in five matches against teams with a top-five rush defense DVOA but has often fallen short of this mark.

Given the game's short rest period and Warren's recent 59-yard performance against the Cardinals' weaker run defense, I don't expect him to break the 42.5 yard mark.

⭐ Best NFL PicksJaylen Warren UNDER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings


As we look forward to the thrilling 2023 NFL season, there's another exciting development for sports betting enthusiasts. As of September 28, Kentucky has launched online sports betting, paving the way for the emergence of new sports betting apps in Kentucky. This opens up a new realm of opportunities for fans and bettors alike. Stay tuned for more updates on this front.