Denver Broncos vs Miami Dolphins Predictions, Odds & NFL Picks 09/24
Broncos vs. Dolphins NFL Picks & Best Bets Today: September 24, 2023
- ⭐ Broncos +6.5 ATS (-110) at BetMGM
- ⭐ Over 48 total points (alternate line) (-123) at Caesars
- ⭐ Broncos Over 20.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel
Over the season’s first two games, it’s looked like a tale of two polar opposite teams. The Denver Broncos are 0-2 on the season, while the Dolphins are 2-0.
Now, as we dive into this Dolphins vs. Broncos prediction, this is the first road game of the season for Denver and the first home game for Miami.
The Broncos lost 17-16 in Week 1 at home to the division rival Las Vegas Raiders. Then, in Week 2, they had a substantial lead against the Washington Commanders, but it dissipated, and they found themselves down 35-27 with a few ticks on the clock remaining. After a few fortunate bounces, quarterback Russell Wilson completed a pass for a Haily Mary that ended up as a touchdown for the Sean Payton-led squad. The score was now 35-33; they attempted a two-point conversion. It failed but came with controversy, as many believe there should’ve been a pass interference call.
Looking at the Dolphins, they came back late in Week 1 to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 36-34. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a dominant performance, throwing for more than 440 yards. Then, in Week 2, on prime time Sunday Night Football, the final score against the New England Patriots was 24-17, but they dominated the entire game.
Below are some NFL best bet options for this game using odds from the best online betting sites, including BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel.
Dolphins vs. Broncos Betting Trends & NFL Week 3 Predictions
The Broncos have fluctuated between a six-point and 6.5-point road underdog in this one as the over/under holds at 47.5 points. The moneyline favors the Dolphins here, as they’re the favorites. Despite the trajectory of both teams through two weeks of the season, the spread is one of our NFL best bets today.
How to Watch Dolphins vs. Broncos
- Date: Sunday, September 24
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
- Where to Watch: CBS
Heading into this game, the Dolphins look like the most dominant team in the AFC, scoring at least a combined 60 points. However, their injury report includes notable players such as Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Salvon Ahmed. While many of the players on the report should suit up, Waddle, the receiver who lines up opposite Hill, will likely miss this one with a concussion.
With Waddle out, this changes things massively for the Broncos defense, as Patrick Surtain II will look to shadow Hill the entire game. Behind Waddle are receivers like River Cracraft and Erik Ezukanma. Broncos edge rusher Jonathon Cooper has an excellent matchup as he looks to overwhelm right tackle Austin Jackson.
The Dolphins will want to run the ball here, but they’ve performed pretty well against the run, thanks to the linebacker Josey Jewell—the Broncos allow 91.5 rushing yards per game, the 11th-least in the league.
Without Waddle, the offense will need to operate differently, influencing our Dolphins vs. Broncos picks.
⭐ My Best Bet: Broncos +6.5 (-110) BetMGM
Dolphins vs. Broncos Odds & NFL Best Picks
Below are some betting trends that helped make our Dolphins vs. Broncos picks.
Dolphins vs. Broncos Betting Trends:
- The Broncos were 4-5 ATS on the road last season.
- The Broncos were 2-0 ATS as road underdogs of 6.5 points or more in 2022.
- Playing at home, games involving the Miami Dolphins went over just once in 2022.
⭐ NFL Best Bets 1: Broncos +6.5 ATS (-110) at BetMGM: The Broncos offense has improved each week, and while the defense allowed 35 points to the Commanders, a big part of that was their coverage unit. Cornerback Damarri Mathis allowed seven receptions on eight targets for 83 yards and a touchdown. The week before, against the Raiders, he allowed eight catches on nine targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. If Waddle was on the field, Mathis would certainly have issues. Without him, the matchups become easier as Surtain II will shadow Hill.
At the same time, Mathis deals with less-than-difficult competition in Cracraft or Ezukanma. The Broncos will run the ball with moderate success here and should be able to keep it close while their defense stymies the Dolphins offense enough to keep it within six. The Dolphins win the game ultimately, though.
⭐ NFL Best Bets 2: Over 47.5 total points (-110) at Caesars: The over/under for this game has fluctuated from 48.5 to 48 and is now down to 47.5. While the loss of Waddle is massive for this Dolphins offense, it’s still Mike McDaniel calling the plays, and he’ll be able to drum something up. Meanwhile, the Broncos take on a Dolphins defense with talent along the defensive line and Jevon Holland on the back end.
Still, their corners, Eli Apple and Xavien Howard, haven’t played top-tier football this season. We could have a bit of a shootout here in the end. Dolphins win 30-27.
⭐ NFL Best Bets 3: Durham Smythe Any Time TD (+230) at FanDuel: With Waddle out of the lineup, Tagovailoa will look elsewhere to pass the ball, and Smythe could see some short-yardage red-zone throws. No one on the Dolphins roster, including Hill or Waddle, has run more routes than Smythe. When he’s on the field, he runs a route more than 91% of the time. He has just nine targets this season, but eventually, something’s got to give.
The Broncos allowed a touchdown to Commanders tight end Logan Thomas in Week 2 on two receptions for 22 yards. If the Dolphins make it down closer to the goal line and their running game cannot execute, look for Smythe to pick up his first score.
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