NFL Predictions, NFL Betting Trends, NFL Picks & NFL Best Bets for Week 3

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 23rd, 2023
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NFL Predictions, NFL Betting Trends, NFL Picks & NFL Best Bets for Week 3
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NFL Picks for Week 3 Including Betting Trends & Odds


We have yet another slate of NFL action as we head into Week 3 with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the New York Giants to kick things off on Thursday Night Football. 

Week 2 was an unfortunate week for many top running backs as the Giants will be without Saquon Barkley for the next few weeks with an ankle injury, and Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb suffered yet another catastrophic knee injury similar to what he endured in his true freshman season with Georgia Bulldogs in 2015. 

With all that in mind, we sourced the best online betting sites, including FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings, to make our NFL Picks for Week 3. 

Find our picks below.

Washington Commanders vs. Buffalo Bills: Commanders +6.5 (-110) at FanDuel

⭐ Commanders +6.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Don’t look now, but the Commanders are 2-0 and 1-1 against the spread this season. The Bills are 1-1 on the year and also 1-1 against the spread. 

For the Commanders, we must remember that this is quarterback Sam Howell’s first season starting full-time. Week 1 of this season was his second-ever start. In Week 2, though, on the road against a stout Denver Broncos defense, he completed 69.2% of his passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns. He added 13 rushing yards as well and scored on the ground in Week 1. 

Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Brian Robinson Jr., Anthony Gibson, and more are at his disposal. 

The Bills are allowing a reception rate of 76.9%, and their cornerbacks haven’t performed too well this season, including Tre’Davious White, who’s allowed six receptions on eight targets and two touchdowns. 

Howell has been great on passes 10-19 yards downfield, completing 63.2% of his passes for 194, one touchdown, and one interception. 

The Commanders have a passing attack that can contend with the Bills and a defense that can generate pressure and cover well enough on the outside. 

Don’t be surprised to see an upset here, but we'll still take Commanders +6.5 (-110) at FanDuel.

Betting Trends

  • Last season, the Commanders were 2-1 ATS as underdogs of 6.5 points or more. 
  • The Commanders were underdogs in eight games last season and won four outright. 
  • When favored by 6.5 points or more last season, the Bills were 5-6 ATS. 

Best NFL PickCommanders +6.5 (-110) at FanDuel

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets:Patriots to Score First (-125) at BetMGM

⭐ Patriots to Score First (-125) at BetMGM

Heading into East Rutherford to take on the Jets, the Patriots defense, and the Jets defense will be another exciting matchup. In Week 2, the Jets allowed 30 points, but only 14 came from touchdowns. Also, quarterback Zach Wilson threw three interceptions and was sacked three times, which certainly didn’t help the defense. 

The Jets scored their first points at 7:12 in the second quarter on a big play to wide receiver Garrett Wilson, a shorter pass from Zach Wilson, which Garrett Wilson took to the house. 

It’s no secret that Zach Wilson has struggled throughout his NFL career, while Mac Jones, who was drafted the same year as Mac Jones, has performed better than him overall. 

Despite the power of the Jets defense, the Patriots' defense will cause issues for Wilson here, too. It’s hard to trust the Jets scoring, let alone first in a game. We'll go with Patriots to Score First (-125) at BetMGM.

Betting Trends

  • The Patriots were 5-2-1 in 2022 ATS when they were 2.5 points or larger favorites last season. 
  • The Patriots are 0-2 against the spread this season against the Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins. 
  • Last season, only five of the Jets 17 games went over on the total. 

Best NFL PickPatriots to Score First (-125) at BetMGM

Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos: Broncos Win First Quarter (+180) at DraftKings

⭐ Broncos Win First Quarter (+180) at DraftKings

Heading into Week 3, the Miami Dolphins offense looks like it’s borderline unstoppable with speed all over the field. However, one of their speedsters, Jaylen Waddle, is in the concussion protocol, and his status for Week 3 is uncertain. 

Without him, Tyreek Hill will see plenty of Patrick Surtain II in this one, and he’s a cornerback who should be able to match up with Hill decently well. 

This season, the Broncos are averaging 10 points in the first quarter, with the Dolphins scoring 10 points through the first two quarters. We like Broncos to win first quarter (+180) at DraftKings.

The speed of the Dolphins' offense tends to wear defenses down over time, though the Broncos' defense has the players to slow them down potentially. 

So far this season, Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson hasn’t played all that poorly. He’s complying 68.2% of his passes for 485 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. 

He does have three turnover-worthy plays, but the Dolphins' defense isn’t exactly a threat, while Wilson has weapons like Brandon Johnson, Marvin Mims, Courtland Sutton, and Jerry Jeudy at his disposal. 

Speaking of speed and deep threats, Mims can take a deep pass to the house, which he very well could against a reasonably weak Dolphins cornerback dup in Eli Apple and Xavien Howard. 

Look for the Broncos to keep this one close.

Betting Trends

  • The Broncos were 4-5 ATS on the road in 2022. 
  • In 2022, the Broncos were 2-0 ATS as road underdogs of 6.5 points or more. 
  • The total went over just once in home games featuring the Miami Dolphins in 2022. 

Best NFL PickBroncos Win First Quarter (+180) at DraftKings

As we look forward to these thrilling NFL matchups, there's another exciting development on the horizon for sports betting enthusiasts. Come this September, Kentucky will be launching online sports betting, paving the way for the emergence of new Kentucky betting apps. This opens up a new realm of opportunities for fans and bettors alike. Stay tuned for more updates on this front.


BetMGM offers a unique Bonus where your first bet can earn you up to $1,500 which can be used to place your bets on the college football season. This means if you place a bet and lose, BetMGM will match the amount (up to $1,500) as free bets in your account, providing another chance to win.

To claim, new users need to register, make a first-time deposit, and then simply place their first real-money wager on any FanDuel Sportsbook market that is live on the platform. All users will receive their bonus bets within 72 hours of the bet placement.

New users at DraftKings just have to deposit and bet $5 to get $200 instantly and up to $150 in No Sweat Bets. The $200 will be issued in eight $25 bonus bets. Opt-in required for one No Sweat token issued per eligible gameday, up to 3 per week.