March Madness Previews, Picks, and Predictions for Saturday, March 19

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March Madness Previews, Picks, and Predictions for Saturday, March 19
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Here’s some betting advice for a couple of March Madness games for Saturday’s second round.

(12) Richmond vs. (4) Providence

  • Second Round
  • KeyBank Center, Buffalo
  • 6:40 p.m. ET

Richmond is fresh off an upset of the 5-seed Iowa Hawkeyes, who were priced as double-digit favorites.

The Spiders’ confidence is sky high and will look to upset the Providence Friars and advance to the Sweet 16 Round.

The March Madness Betting Odds

The betting markets opened with Providence installed as a 3.5-point favorite and a total of 133 points.

With the huge upset win over Iowa, money came in on Richmond and has since forced the line lower to make Providence a 2.5-point favorite.

The total has seen more support for the Over than the Under wager and has moved the total to a current price of 134.5 points.

Of the 5000+ tickets bet in early action, 55% and 80% of the money was on Richmond.

I see this as a red flag now and if that percentage of tickets rises to above 60% of all tickets wagered, I will like Providence even more than I do now.

The Round of 32 Matchup

Providence played with something to prove in the opening round win over South Dakota.

The media pundits were expecting an upset win by South Dakota State, who was the nations’ best 3-point shooting team.

Providence has not been past the second round of the NCAA Tournament since 1997, when it reached the Elite Eight under coach Pete Gillen.

So, there is more work to be done and Noah Horchler said, "We knew everyone thought there was going to be an upset and that kind of fueled the fire behind us, and we came out and showed we were determined to win."

The matchup and player to watch is Providence 6-foot-10 center Nate Watson and how Richmond plans to defend the block.

Watson averages a team-high 13.6 points per game, has been held to single digits in three of his past four games, and will be a huge problem for Richmond, who does not have size to match up effectively against him.

The Trends and Angles

Providence is an outstanding 16-5-1 against the spread when facing a foe with a winning record.

The Friars are 24-11-1 against the spread when facing a foe that has won 60 to 80% of their gamers in games played over the past three seasons.

They are also 23-1-2 against the spread following back-to-back games in which they allowed nine or fewer offensive rebounds over the last three seasons.

Richmond has been a money-burning 2-8 against the spread after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Richmond coach Chris Mooney is 6-17 against the spread after allowing 65 or fewer points in five consecutive games.

Bet the Providence Friars.

(1) Gonzaga vs. (9) Memphis

  • Second Round
  • Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
  • 9:40 p.m. ET

Top-seed Gonzaga had a tough game against 16-seeded Georgia State for 27+ minutes of the game before overwhelming the Panthers to earn a misleading double-digit victory.

The Bulldogs know they will have to be sharper right from the opening tip against an underrated Memphis Tigers team Saturday night.

The Betting Markets

The betting markets opened with Gonzaga favored by 11.5 points. The betting community immediately loved Memphis in such large numbers that it forced the line to 10.5.

The total has moved from an opening of 152 points to 155. Of the tickets bet in early action, 67% and nearly 80% of the money is being wagered on Memphis.

This creates an opportunity for a contrarian bet on Gonzaga.

Looking at the Trends and Angles

What I like most about this matchup is the bet for the under at 155 or more points.

This bet is supported by a highly profitable betting system that has earned a 60-26-1 Under record, good for 70% winning tickets over the past five seasons.

The requirements for this system are to bet the Under with double-digit favorites that are averaging 62 or more shots per game and facing an opponent after a game in which they allowed a shooting percentage of 33% or lower.

So, in this case, Memphis is coming off a game in which they played exceptional defense and are prone for regression against one of the best, if not the best offensive teams in the nation.

Betting the Under with the Memphis team total of 71.5 is the preferred strategy.

Here are a few more trends and angles that support the Under bet.

Memphis is 10-3 Under in road games, when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Memphis is 22-10 Under after game No. 15 in each of the past three seasons, when playing against a team with a winning record.

Memphis is 24-13 Under when facing an opponent attempting 21 or more 3-point shots per game in each of the past two seasons.

Last, Memphis is 9-2 Under when facing a very good team that has outscored their opponents by four or more points per game this season.

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John Ryan

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