Best MLB Prop Bets Today & MLB Player Prop Bets for Today 06/17
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Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today, June 17:
- ⭐ Sean Murphy Over 0.5 Singles (-113) at BetMGM Sportsbook
- ⭐ Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135) at bet365 Sportsbook
- ⭐ Tanner Houck Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) at bet365 Sportsbook
- ⭐ Blake Snell Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- ⭐ Lourdes Gurriel Over 0.5 RBIs (+175) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves Odds, 4:10 PM ET
Best MLB Prop Bet #1: Sean Murphy Over 0.5 Singles (-113) at BetMGM
With his impressive performance this season, Sean Murphy has emerged as one of the top-hitting catchers in baseball, making us confident in this bet. Murphy boasts a batting average of .285, along with 12 home runs and 42 RBIs, showcasing his prowess at the plate.
What makes his success even more remarkable is his elevated batting average, far surpassing his career average of .243. While his power is evident, being a catcher means opportunities for extra-base hits are limited, making singles and home runs his mainstay. In the upcoming game, Murphy will face a new pitcher, Connor Seabold, who has struggled in his debut season with a 4.70 ERA.
Despite a slight improvement in June, Seabold exhibited vulnerabilities in his recent outing by surrendering six hits. We believe Murphy has a strong chance of getting a single against Seabold and, if not, the Rockies' bullpen, which has struggled lately, will likely provide him with further opportunities.
Best MLB Prop Bet #1: Sean Murphy Over 0.5 Singles (-113)
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners Props, 4:10 PM ET
Best MLB Prop Bet #2: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135) at bet365
Gilbert's remarkable improvement in strikeout rate this season, with an almost five percent increase compared to last year, is a key factor supporting our belief that he will surpass the 6.5 strikeouts mark.
A significant contributing factor to his success has been the effective incorporation of more breaking balls into his repertoire, with his slider, curveball, and splitter boasting impressive whiff rates of over 27%. While Gilbert has already achieved notable strikeout totals this season, today's set line is closer to his maximum potential.
Although he fell short of this total in seven of his 13 outings, it aligns with a consistent trend throughout his career, as he has gone under this mark in 65.2% of his last 46 starts. Furthermore, our Action Labs projections reinforce our confidence in his underperformance, forecasting him to achieve 5.4 strikeouts.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet #2: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135)
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Props, 7:15 PM ET
Best MLB Prop Bet #3: Tanner Houck Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) at bet365
While it may appear challenging at first glance, the 5.5 strikeouts threshold is well within reach for Tanner Houck when considering his recent performances.
Analyzing his last six starts reveals impressive statistics: a 3.57 SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average), a 25.4% strikeout rate (up by 4.4%), a 6.9% walk rate (down by 2.5%), and a 15.6% swinging-strike rate (increased by 4.7%). Notably, Houck has exceeded this mark in three of his previous four starts, including a strong outing against the Yankees, a team he will face again tonight.
With the absence of Aaron Judge in the Yankees' lineup, our confidence remains high that Houck will deliver six or more strikeouts in this game.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet #3: Tanner Houck Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres Props, 7:15 PM ET
Best MLB Prop Bet #4: Blake Snell Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145) at DraftKings
We have strong reasons to believe that Blake Snell of the San Diego Padres will allow under 2.5 earned runs in his upcoming outing. Snell's performance has been impressive lately, with his strikeout numbers increasing in each of his last six starts, including a remarkable 12-strikeout display in his previous game at Coors Field.
While the Tampa Bay Rays have a relatively low strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, their overall offense has experienced a decline, evident from their 13th-highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days. Additionally, Snell has a history of performing better as the season progresses, with a significantly higher winning percentage in the second half compared to the first half of the season.
Despite his lowest career strikeout rate in June, Snell has shown promise by recording at least 18 outs in his last three starts, indicating a heightened potential for strikeouts. Moreover, Tampa Bay's recent offensive struggles, averaging 4.9 runs per game compared to their season-long average of 5.63, further supports the likelihood of Snell keeping their run production in check.
Considering his track record and the team's current form, the Under has been a successful outcome in Snell's previous five starts against teams with losing records, reinforcing our confidence in his ability to limit the opposition's scoring.
Best MLB Prop Bet #3: Blake Snell Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145)
Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks Props, 10:10 PM ET
Best MLB Prop Bet #5: Lourdes Gurriel Over 0.5 RBIs (+175) at FanDuel
Lourdes Gurriel is poised to surpass the 0.5 RBI mark, and there are several factors supporting this prediction. Although Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians is still considered an ace, his performance hasn't matched his past dominance.
Bieber's strikeout rate has declined over the last four years, currently sitting at 17.6%, well below the league average of 22.1%. Gurriel has faced Bieber during his time with the Toronto Blue Jays and has had success, recording four hits in ten at-bats, resulting in an impressive 1.000 OPS. Despite Bieber's previously elite strikeout rates, Gurriel has only struck out once against him.
Additionally, Gurriel has displayed his prowess against right-handed pitching this season, boasting a .548 slugging percentage, the seventh-best among all qualified hitters in MLB. The Over has been favorable in Arizona's recent games against right-handed starters, and Gurriel ranks second on the team with 39 RBIs.
With a track record of consistent run production, having driven in at least one run in six of his last 12 games, including multiple RBIs in four of them, Gurriel presents excellent value to deliver at least one RBI in this matchup.
Best MLB Prop Bet #5: Lourdes Gurriel Over 0.5 RBIs (+175)
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FAQ
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Updated by
Admir Aljic
Last Updated:
