Best Statistically-Based Bets to Make on Premier League Games this Week

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Best Statistically-Based Bets to Make on Premier League Games this Week
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The English Premier League is in the stretch run and we’ll give you betting advice as the season winds down.

We’ve used the data from around the Premier League and examined the latest odds for the upcoming games to see what the most statistically-backed outcomes are set to be for the midweek games.

Manchester City vs. Brighton: Both Teams to Score and City to win (30.6%)

Manchester City has been sensational all season long, as it is a point clear at the top of the Premier League having scored 72 times and won 23 games. It faces off with a Brighton & Hove Albion side now in 10th after consecutive wins in north London, as it beat Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur away from home recently.

Both teams have scored with a City victory in 30.6% of their games this season, and with Brighton in such excellent form just as Pep Guardiola’s men haven’t won in their past three, City to win this game and both teams to score is expected.

Liverpool vs. Manchester United: Over 3.5 goals (48.1%)

The biggest rivalry in England continues this Tuesday with Liverpool playing host to Manchester United at Anfield. Jurgen Klopp’s men aer seeking an unprecedented quadruple, just as the Red Devils aim for top four.

It’s a derby, and one that often sees goals. In the past three fixtures between the two, United won 3-2, Liverpool won 4-2, and the Reds won by a record-breaking 5-0 score in the last meeting.

In 48.1% of the Reds’ games, they have scored over 3.5 goals, with 34.9% of fixtures having this outcome in United matches. Given this at Anfield, and how there have been over 3.5 goals in all of Liverpool’s past four games, this outcome is expected once more, especially considering Klopp’s men won 5-0 the last time these two met.

Everton vs. Leicester: Over 2.5 goals (64.6%)

A fixture that is statistically the most likely on this list to see over 2.5 goals is Everton against Leicester City at Goodison Park. The Toffees are still fighting relegation, and have now seen 52 goals conceded, while scoring only 33 of their own.

The Foxes have netted a chunk more with 46 shots going in. But they have allowed 50 goals across 30 games, so there’s rarely a game they keep a clean sheet and see under 2.5 goals.

In fact, 61.1% of Everton games this season have seen over 2.5 goals, with Leicester witnessing over 2.5 goals in 64.6% of their fixtures. Brendan Rodgers’ men also saw over 2.5 goals just a few days ago, as they lost 2-1 to Newcastle United.

Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace: Gallagher to be booked (33.3%)

In 57 Premier League appearances, Conor Gallagher has received an alarming 19 yellow cards. This is as close to a booking every other game as any player currently is in the Premier League, and as he couldn’t play in the last game, the midfielder is expected to start here.

Gallagher has given away 95 fouls in his 57 league outings, and with Newcastle United playing for the counterattack under Eddie Howe, his presence is going to be needed in the defensive lines. Gallagher also has a tackle success rate of just 52%, and statistically speaking, he is always looking like giving away a foul.

The England international also has 10 yellow cards this season across 37 games and has been shown the first yellow card on 27% of those occasions.

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Grant McQuillan

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