Who Will Win American Idol Now that it's Down to 12?

Date IconLast Updated: Apr 26th, 2023
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Who Will Win American Idol Now that it's Down to 12?
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Season 21 of American Idol has just 12 contestants remaining, but two wannabes were left needing the judges to keep them in the competition. 

America picked their Top 10, leaving the judges, Katy Perry, Luke Bryan and Lionel Richie, to choose which remaining two hopefuls would progress to next week's episode. 

There was nearly a huge shock as last week's favorite Nutsa was in danger of departing the competition, only to be saved. 

Nutsa dropped to her knees in shock at the last-gasp survival, and the judges also saved fellow wannabe Lucy Love. 

Following Nutsa's close call, it is all change at the top of the betting market. 

With these hypothetical odds provided by industry sports betting experts, we have looked into which contestants might have what it takes to be crowned this year's American Idol champion. 

Who Will Win American Idol?

Contestant Odds Implied Probability
Iam Tongi +200 33.3%
Wé Ani +300 25%
Tyson Venegas +400 20%
Zachariah Smith +500 16.7%
Megan Danielle +600 14.3%
Nutsa +700 12.5%
Oliver Steele +750 11.8%
Colin Stough +800 11.1%
Warren Peay +800 11.1%
Marybeth Byrd +1000 9.1%
Lucy Love +1000 9.1%
Haven Madison +1200 7.7%

Tongi Is New American Idol Favorite

It's been a great week for Iam Tongi, as not only has the star made it through to the final 12 contestants on American Idol, but the singer is now the favorite to win the competition. 

In a bid to make it into the Top 12, Tongi performed "The Winner Takes it All" by ABBA, and judging by his position in the betting market, that song choice could be a sign of his fortunes in the contest. 

Tongi was +400 last week but now tops the betting at +200, with a 33.3% implied probability, ahead of second favorite Wé Ani at +300. 

Tyson Venegas has made a big leap in the betting in the past week, after his original song '180' wowed the viewers. 

He is now just +400 third favorite to triumph after his odds halved from +800 last week, and he has leapfrogged former third favorite Zachariah Smith (+500) 

Megan Danielle is another hopeful who has breezed up the leaderboard. She was +1300 to triumph last week, but her odds have more than halved to +600, and she is the fifth favorite. 

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Nutsa Still In With A Shot On American Idol 

Nutsa led the way as the favorite to win the show last week at odds of +300, but she was nearly sent out of the competition in what would've been a huge American Idol shock. 

The wannabe's rendition of Toni Braxton's "Un-Break My Heart" clearly didn't impress the viewers enough. 

This came despite the star being roundly supported by the audience last week when judge Perry was booed for dissing Nutsa's glitter-clad performance of "Paris (Ooh La La)" in the Top 26 doubleheader. 

While it was the audience's turn to be down on Nutsa this week, Perry and Co. put her into the next round following her impressive rendition of the survival song "And I Am Telling You I Am Not Going". 

Judge Bryan told her she "knocked that out of the park," and he and Perry both shouted, "We're nuts for Nutsa," as they put her through - and she is now +700 to win. 

Elsewhere, Oliver Steele (+750) and Colin Stough (+800) have flip-flopped positions in the market after Steele was +1000 last week, while Stough was +700. 

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American Idol Judges Have Lots Of Love 

Like Nutsa, Love is another hopeful who has the judges to thank for putting her into the next round. 

Despite being a +1000 outsider to win the competition following her near exit, she could still be a dark horse to win the show, particularly after judge Richie said to her this week: "If I had to bet on anybody, I’m gonna bet on you." 

While America didn't back Love to progress, they did put Marybeth Byrd (+1000) into the safety zone, and she celebrated with a rendition of Jason Isbell's hit "Cover Me Up." 

Warren Peay (+800) and Haven Madison (+1200) were given the same treatment, but both have plenty to do if they are to trouble Tongi and Ani at the top of the betting market.