DraftKings Shares Fall On Unfavorable October Hold
Shares in DraftKings, one of the largest US sportsbooks, fell on Monday after Susquehanna said sports betting results remained unfavorable for bookmakers in October. The firm's national model showed hold running below normal, following an unfavorable September, according to Yahoo Finance.
Hold is the share of customer wagers a sportsbook keeps after paying winnings. When results go the bettors' way, hold drops, and revenue falls even if wagering is strong. Every sportsbook is exposed to that swing.
What The Susquehanna Model Showed
For NFL Week 8, college football Week 9 and the second week of the NBA season, Susquehanna estimated unfavorable hold on its football-only model.
The week before, the same model had pointed to neutral hold. A combined football and basketball version also stayed unfavorable, according to the Investing.com summary.
The firm said both September and October were unfavorable and down year on year. The coverage did not give a hold percentage for DraftKings or put a dollar figure on the effect, and the estimates are model outputs rather than reported results.
How The Model Is Built
Susquehanna's national model tracks NFL games on Sundays and Mondays, college football from Wednesday to Saturday and NBA games all week. It added a combined football and basketball analysis after the NBA season began on October 20, and college basketball tipped off on November 1.
The model covers selected events rather than every wager in the market, so it works as an indicator of conditions rather than a full measure of operator performance.
Susquehanna says the football-only version has a 0.72 correlation with New York state data, and the football and basketball version 0.68.
Why Hold Matters
Hold is an important driver for operators because it determines how much wagering turns into retained revenue. A fixed volume of bets can produce very different results depending on whether favourites win or lose, which is why analysts track weekly outcomes long before companies report.
A correlation closer to 1.0 means a stronger link between the model and reported data. At 0.72 and 0.68 the link is clearly positive but not exact, so Susquehanna's reading is best treated as a guide, not a forecast of reported revenue.
A Run Of Cautious Notes
The latest update follows earlier notes. On October 8, Investing.com reported that Susquehanna lowered its price target on DraftKings to $27 from $33 while keeping a positive rating, citing a tough market backdrop.
A note published on October 12 said hold for the month to date was unfavorable after a weak September, as covered by Investing.com.
Analyst hold estimates are only a guide to the quarter. DraftKings will report the real figures in its own results, and state regulators publish monthly revenue that show how each market performed. Bettors should note that unfavorable hold for operators does not change the odds they are offered.
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