Jefferies: Flutter's US Revenue On Track As Promo Spending Falls

Flutter Entertainment's US sportsbook and casino business is tracking in line with its third-quarter guidance after an easing in promotional spending, according to a Jefferies note reported by Proactive Investors on October 26, 2026. 

Jefferies expects the owner of FanDuel to deliver US net gaming revenue of $1.483 billion for the quarter, against guidance of $1.48 billion. 

That is 8% year-on-year growth and one percentage point better than the broker's previous forecast, which had pointed to a modest shortfall.

The change comes from September promotions. Flutter's promotional spending was 16% below the previous year across states where data is available, with declines of about 30% in Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

Promotional spend covers bonus bets and similar offers, so it shapes what operators put in front of new customers.

Why The Number Matters

Flutter's own guidance gives the benchmark. In its second-quarter results on August 5, the company set US revenue at $7.4 billion at the midpoint for 2026 and said that about 20% of full-year revenue would be recognized in the third quarter. That works out at roughly $1.48 billion.

Jefferies said the lower September promotion levels surprised it, because it had expected spending to rise after lower year-on-year outlay in July and August. 

It now expects both US net gaming revenue and adjusted EBITDA to meet guidance, even though recent tracking data and investor expectations had pointed to a possible miss.

The broker added a caution. Ohio is Flutter's fourth-largest state and the largest market that reports free-bet data, so it remains the next test of whether lower promotional intensity is spreading across the US business.

Online Casino Growth

Across the US online casino market, gross gaming revenue grew 13% in September, up from 12% in August but below the 16% recorded in the second quarter. 

New Jersey recovered to 13% growth from 4% in August, Michigan edged up to 16% from 15%, and Pennsylvania slowed to 10% from 13%.

Flutter's own online casino growth held at 8%, matching August but behind the 13% of the second quarter. Jefferies noted it still outpaced BetMGM, which grew 4%, while DraftKings also grew 8%.

Prediction Markets

The note also tracked prediction markets. Kalshi's trading volume hit a record $18.3 billion in the sixth week of the NFL season, double the weekly run rate of $9.7 billion before the season began, Proactive reported. 

Jefferies' view was that the growth has not materially cannibalized sports betting. 

The Market Reporter's summary of the same note added that Kalshi's share of that volume had slipped to 76% from 84%.

Jefferies kept a buy rating on Flutter with a $180 price target, compared with a closing price of $81.69. Flutter reports its third-quarter update on November 4, 2026, at 7:00 a.m. ET, when the real figures will test the forecast.