Monday Night Football Pick: Can the Raiders Stun Kansas City?

Monday Night Football Pick: Can the Raiders Stun Kansas City?
© USA Today

We're looking at a big rivalry game for Monday Night Football this week and here is our NFL betting advice for the Raiders at Chiefs game at Arrowhead Stadium.

 

Las Vegas at Kansas City

Arrowhead Stadium, 8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Chiefs -7 | Total: 51.5 points

The Las Raiders (1-3 straight up, 1-3 against the spread, 3-1 Over-Under meet their arch-rival Chiefs (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 Over-Under) in a game that the line opened before the start of the season with the Chiefs favored by six points.

So far, 75% of the bets — but only 55% of the money — are going on the Chiefs and that forced the line to rise to seven. 

The total opened at 50.5 points and has moved up to 51.5 points with 55% of the tickets bet and 78% of the money wagered on the Over.

The Raiders get their bye week next and are in a solid position to challenge the Chiefs on the scoreboard. The Raiders are 6-3 Over-Under, good for 67% winning Over bets, in the game preceding their bye.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Over, using the first-half total in this matchup.

  • Bet over the first half total when it is priced at 25 or more points involving a team like Kansas City that has won three of the last four games and with the current game taking place in Weeks 5 through 9. This set of parameters has produced a 29-7 Over record, good for 78.4% winning bets over the last five seasons.
  • The Chiefs are at 39-20 Over the first-half total in home games after having won three of their last four games in games played over the past 20 seasons.
  • Andy Reid is 25-15 Over in the first half total after having won three of his last four games as the coach of the Kansas City Chiefs

I am betting the Over the first-half total of 26 points -110 as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.

 

Quick Kicks

Here are some prop bets to consider for tonight's game.

  1. Bet the Raiders Derek Carr Over 1.5 passing touchdowns -128 at FanDuel.
  2. Bet the Raiders DaVante Adams 2+ scoring touchdowns +750 at Caesars.
  3. Bet the Raiders Carr Over 25.5 completions -110 at BetRivers.
  4. Bet the Raiders placekicker Daniel Carlsen Over 6.5 points -119 at Caesars.
  5. Bet the Raiders Nate Hobbs to get an interception +900 at Unibet.

For the season, player prop bets are 24-10, for 71% winning bets, making $843 per $50 bet.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season. 

 

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