Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies: World Series Game 3 Picks

Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies: World Series Game 3 Picks

Here is our World Series betting advice and analysis for Game 3. We'll start with our prop bets, then give you our game pick.

Best Prop Bets for Today's Game 3

BetMGM +105 Yes, a run will be scored in the first inning
Caesars -108 Astros McCullers' Under 15.5 recorded outs
DraftKings +700 Astros' Chas McCormick hits a home run
DraftKings +450 Phillies' Nick Castellanos hits a double
DraftKings +425 Phillies' Bryce Harper hits a double +425
Caesars -150 Astros' Chas McCormick to get a hit

Houston Astros -130 at Philadelphia Phillies +110 

Game 3, Today, 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia 

I am betting on the Phillies +110 as offered at BetMGM. 

The Phillies earned a split in the first two games of the World Series in Houston, winning Game 1 6-5 and losing Game 2 5-2. The split is the third consecutive year the World Series is tied heading into Game 3. 

The intriguing storylines of this World Series include the Phillies' starter for Game 3, Noah Syndergaard, acquired from the floundering LA Angels with just minutes remaining in the trade deadline for two minor leaguers. 

Syndergaard posted a 10-10 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.231 WHIP, including 31 walks and 96 strikeouts over 135 2/3 innings. Since being acquired by the Phillies he is 5-2 in 10 starts with a 4.52 ERA but has been exceptional over his last three starts posting a 3.07 ERA and .818 WHIP. 

Syndergaard will pitch three or four innings tonight before Phillies manager Rob Thompson goes to the bullpen, which has been terrific of late. 

Lance McCullers will start for Houston. He was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He struck out 50 and walked 25. 

What is the Most Important Key to this Game? 

McCullers, a righty, has been far more effective against left-handed batters (.214 batting average, .635 OPS) than right-handed ones (.240 batting average, .710 OPS) during the regular season for his career. 

In the playoffs left-handed domination increases (.170 BA, .505 OPS) compared to right-handed batters (.265 BA, .825 OPS). However, he will be going up against two of the best left-handed batters in the game today in leadoff man Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper tonight. Whoever wins this matchup will more than likely win Game 3. 

The Trends and Angles you need to know for Game 3 of the World Series 

  • World Series home underdogs coming off a loss have seen the Over go 8-2-2 and a run has been scored in the first inning in eight of those 12 games.
  • McCullers Is 8-16, losing 14 units on the moneyline, facing an aggressive hitting team averaging three or fewer walks per game for his career.
  • The Phillies are 37-27, making 11 units on the moneyline, following a game where the bullpen allowed zero runs.
  • The Over is 16-7-1 in the World Series with a home team, whose starter has a higher ERA on the season than the opponent.
  • The Phillies are 12-2 Over in home games facing a foe that averages 1.25 or more home runs per game this season.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy 

This betting strategy worked perfectly in Game 1, getting the Phillies at +750 on the moneyline. 

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts) on the Phillies using the moneyline.
  • If the Astros score first and not more than 3 runs in total during the first three innings, bet the remaining 50% using the LIVE in-game moneyline price on the Phillies.

 

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