MLB Betting Advice for Games on the Aug. 12 Schedule
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
American League Best Bet
New York Yankees –120 at Boston Red Sox +110
7:10 p.m. ET
The New York Yankees have lost seven of their last eight games and have posted a 15-20 record, averaging a -182 favorite on the moneyline and losing 17.5 units, resulting in a horrid -32% ROI since July 1.
This record ranks 23 in the MLB. The Yankees bullpen has allowed 1.69 runs per game since July 1.
The Red Sox had a terrible month of July and it doesn't appear they have a realistic chance at making the postseason. However, they are playing their dreaded rival.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Red Sox.
- The Yankees are 10-17, losing 16 units on the moneyline, when facing a solid fielding team averaging .6 or fewer errors per game in the second half of this season.
- The Yankees are 16-23, losing 18 units on the moneyline, after having lost five or six of their last seven games in the past two seasons.
- The Red Sox are 59-32, making 27 units on the moneyline, following a game in which their bullpen did not allow a run.
I am betting the Red Sox using the moneyline priced at +110 as offered at FanDuel.
National League Best Bet
Philadelphia Phillies +180 at New York Mets –225
7:10 p.m. ET
This is a big NL East divisional showdown at Citi Field in Queens. Today begins a three-game series, then they meet again in Philadelphia for a four-game series starting next Thursday, so seven of their next 10 games will be against one another.
The Mets will start right-hander Max Scherzer (8-2, 1.98 ERA) and the Phillies counter with left-hander Ranger Suarez (8-5, 3.68).
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Phillies.
- The Phillies are 46-34 and making 12 units using the run line when facing a National League foe with a .325 or lower on-base percentage.
- The Mets are 12-23, losing 16 units on the run line, following two consecutive games when they allowed two or fewer runs in each game in the last two seasons.
- The Mets are 10-24, losing 17 units on the run line, following six or more games played at home in the last two seasons.
I will bet the Phillies using the 1.5-run line +120 as offered at BetMGM.
Quick Pitches
Here are some prop bets to consider on today's schedule.
- Bet the Mets' Max Scherzer Under 7.5 strikeouts +100 at Caesars.
- Bet the Phillies' Jean Segura to get an RBI +300 at PointsBet.
- Bet the Red Sox' Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 strikeouts -109 at BetRivers.
- Bet the Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin Over 18.5 outs recorded +130 at Caesars.
- Bet the Braves' Austin Riley to have 2+ hits +250 at FanDuel.
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