Can Dallas Stay Alive Against Golden State? Betting Advice for Game 4
The Dallas Mavericks face a 3-0 deficit in the Western Conference finals matchup with the Golden State Warriors.
No team has ever been able to come back from that deficit. What does that do for your NBA betting?
Dallas gets a chance to stay alive at 9 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Center.
Over the past 20 seasons, road teams up 3-0 are 46-23 straight-up for 67% wins and 37-29-3 against the spread for 56% winning bets, including a 33-33-3 Over-Under record spanning the last 20 playoff seasons.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr was hired before the 2014-15 season and has led the team to the NBA Finals five consecutive seasons, with three championships.
The Warriors missed the playoffs the past two seasons, but if they win tonight, they will match the Michael Jordan-led Chicago Bulls with six trips to the NBA Finals over eight years.
Do the Mavericks Have a Chance to Extend the Series?
Home teams lined between a 2.5-point underdog and a 2.5-point favorite that are down 3-0 have done well in Game 4.
Those teams have a 9-6 straight-up record and a 9-5-1 against the spread mark for 64% winning bets, including a stellar 10-5 Over-Under record for 67% winning Over wagers spanning the last 20 seasons.
However, favorites of not more than 3.5 points that are down 3-0 in the series are 3-5 straight-up and 1-6-1 against the spread for 14% winning bets including a 5-2-1 Over-Under record.
Although this pair of situational angles work for and against the Mavericks, the Over wager has done well in either situation.
Mavericks 23-year-old guard Luka Doncic is already a star in the Association. He has scored 42 and 40 points in his last two games and only the Houston Rockets Hall-of-Fame legend, Hakeem Olajuwon in 1995 and LeBron James twice in the 2008 and 2018 playoff seasons, have scored 40 or more points three times in a conference final.
The difference is that Doncic has lost those games and reflects that lack of scoring depth on the Mavericks' young roster right now.
A Highly Profitable First-Half Betting System
The following first-half betting system has produced a 142-87-3 against the spread record for 62% winning bets over the last 20 NBA playoff seasons.
The requirements are to bet on home teams that are trailing, using the first-half betting line, in a matchup of elite teams having won 60 to 75% of their games. This system is 6-3 against the spread for 67% winners this season.
I am going to the window to bet on the Mavericks -0.5 points to be leading at the half of Game 4.
Other Bets I Like Tonight
Bet Warriors’ Kevon Looney Over 11.5 points and assists at -105 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Bet Mavericks’ Jalen Brunson Over 20.5 points at -105 as offered at BetMGM.
Bet Warriors’ Andrew Wiggins Over 22.5 points and rebounds at -111 as offered at FanDuel.
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