Trends and Angles to Give You the Best Bets for NBA Finals Game 3

Article ByJohn Ryan

Last Updated: Mar 14^th, 2024

© USA Today

Even though they finished third in the Western Conference over the regular season, the Golden State Warriors appear to be the best team in the NBA.

They’ll try to take a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals in Game 3 at the TD Garden in Boston at 8 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on ABC.

We'll look at some trends and angles to help with your NBA betting.

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Warriors Adjustments the Key

Golden State coach Steve Kerr and his staff have been adept at second-half adjustments throughout this playoff run. 

Playoff teams that have outscored their opponents by 25 or more points in the third quarter and are coming off an against the spread cover by at least three points are 21-10 straight up and 20-11 ATS, for 65% winning bets.

The Warriors are 10-5 ATS over the past five playoff seasons and 5-1 ATS over the last three playoff seasons, coming off two consecutive home games. 

Kerr is 44-26-1 ATS following a game in which his team allowed 90 or fewer points.

From my predictive models, the Warriors are expected to score at least 111 points in Game 3. They also have the better and more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio in this series. 

In past regular and playoff season games under Kerr, the Warriors are 284-28 SU and 223-82-7 ATS, for 73% winning bets. They are also 42-4 SU and 33-13 ATS, for 72% winning bets in playoff games.

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Over-Under Trends and Angles for Game 3

• The Warriors 27-17 Over when facing a good passing team that is averaging 23 or more assists per game in games played in the second half of this season.
• The Warriors are 8-1 Over in road games when playing five or fewer games in the past two weeks (14 days).
• The Celtics are 15-5 Over following a double-digit loss spanning the past two seasons.

I am going to the window to bet the Over.

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Other Bets I like for Game 3

• Bet Golden State’s Draymond Green Over 14.5 points and assists at -105 as offered at DraftKings.
• Bet Golden State’s Andrew Wiggins Over 15.5 points at -135 as offered at BetMGM.