NFL Picks: Monday Night Football Betting Advice

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NFL Picks: Monday Night Football Betting Advice
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We got off to a good start with Week 1 picks, winning both top-rated best bets with the Tampa Bay beating Dallas 19-3 and easily covering the spread as a 2.5 road favorites and the New York Giants getting +5.5 points in their come-from-behind win over the Tennessee Titans.  

Let’s look to add another winner in tonight’s marquee matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos.

Denver at Seattle

Today, 8:15 ET, ESPN

Line: Broncos -7 | Total: 44 points

Given a line favoring the Broncos by seven points and a total of 44 points implies a Broncos 25.5-18.5 win. 

My predictive model shows a high probability that the Broncos will score 20 or fewer points and have the same or more turnovers than the Seahawks.

  • Since 1990, the Broncos are 20-11 Under for 64% wins when priced as a road favorite, scoring 20 or fewer points and having the same or more turnovers as the host.
  • Since 1990, the Seahawks are 18-10 Under the total for 64% winning bets when priced as a home dog, allowing 20 or fewer points, and having the same or fewer turnovers than the guest.

I am betting the Under 44 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

A Few Player Prop Considerations

  • Broncos place kicker Brandon McManus Over 1.5 field goals made -120 at Caesars.
  • Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson Under 22.5 completions -103 at Caesars.
  • Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith Over 10.5 rushing yards -110 at DraftKings.

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John Ryan

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