What We Learned from NFL Week 2
Through two weeks of the NFL season, underdogs have gone 10-21 straight-up (SU), 16-16 against the spread (ATS) and 11-21 Over-Under for 67% winning Under bets.
Home underdogs are 4-8-1 SU, 7-6 against the spread and a solid 3-10 Over-Under, good for 77% winning Under bets.
Home favorites are 13-6 SU, 10-9 ATS and 8-11 Over-Under, good for 58% winning Under bets.
Home teams are 17-14-1 SU, 17-15 ATS and 11-21 Over-Under, good for 65% winning Under bets.
Home teams lined between the 3’s (between a 3-point favorite and a 3-point underdog) are 6-5 SU and ATS and 3-8 Over-Under for 72.7% winning Under bets.
Totals priced at 42 or fewer points are 2-5 Over-Under for 71.4% winning Under bets.
Totals priced at 50 or more points are 2-5 Over-Under for 71.4% winning Under bets.
Totals priced between 42.5 and 49.5 points are 7-11 Over-Under for 61% winning Under bets.
Highly Profitable Situational Trends and Angles for Week 3
The New York Jets are 0-12 SU, 1-11 ATS and 4-8 Over-Under following back-to-back games in which they attempted at least 40 passes in games played since 1996.
The Commanders are 5-10 SU, 5-9-1 ATS and 5-10 Over-Under following a game that their quarterback had eight or more bad throws.
The Raiders are 11-9 SU, 13-6-1 ATS and 9-11 Over-Under following a game in which they converted 50% or more of their third down situations and held their previous opponent to less than 30% third down conversions.
The Super Bowl loser (Bengals) from the previous season are 8-11 SU, 7-12 ATS and 7-12 Over-Under in Week 3.
The Super Bowl winner (Rams) from the previous season are 15-4 SU, 9-9-1 ATS and 13-6 Over-Under in Week 3.
Teams that had 35% or fewer of the betting tickets bet on them have gone 5-1 ATS this season.
Teams that had 35% or fewer of the money bet on them are 5-12-1 ATS this season.
Teams that had 10% or more of the money bet versus the number of tickets bet on them have gone 13-4-1 ATS for 76% winning bets this season.
The Bucs are 11-14 SU, 9-15-1 ATS and 11-12-2 Over-Under following two consecutive games in which they held their opponent to fewer points than their team total.
The Cowboys are 13-12 SU, 13-11-1 ATS and 16-9 Over-Under following two consecutive games in which they held their opponent to fewer points than their team total.
The Dolphins are 13-5 SU, 12-6 ATS and 4-14 Over-Under when coming off a game in which they went Over their team total by 17 or more points.
The Browns are 14-30 SU, 15-27-2 ATS and 20-23-1 Over-Under when coming off back-to-back games in which they went Over their team total. (Check out my Thursday Night Football article in this matchup between the divisional rival Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns for the comprehensive research report and best bet.)
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