Best NBA Prop Bets Today, Great Bonuses & Expert Predictions for 05/23
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Best NBA Prop Bets Today, May 23, 2023:
- Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points (-110) @ BetMGM Sportsbook
- Caleb Martin Under 11.5 points (+105) @ bet365 Sportsbook
- Bam Adebayo over 27.5 points and rebounds (-110) @ DraftKings Sportsbook
Tuesday evening will witness an unexpected and captivating scenario at the Kaseya Center as the Miami Heat have the opportunity to secure a spot in the 2023 NBA Finals with a victory against the Boston Celtics on their home court. After a dominant 26-point victory in Game 3, the Miami Heat hold a commanding 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. The fourth game of this best-of-seven series will take place at the Kaseya Center, with tip-off scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
To start off, our prop analysts have identified the top NBA player props for tonight's game. Additionally, our Gambling.com site proudly promotes some of the best online betting sites and for tonights NBA action we have selected three of the very best. You can sign up with all three featured sportsbooks and unlock up to $1,350 in bonus bets for your best NBA prop bets tonight!
Celtics vs. Heat NBA Player Prop Bet #1: Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points (-110) @ BetMGM Sportsbook
- Date: May 23, 2023
- Game Time: 8:30 pm ET
- Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, Fl
- Where to Watch: TNT
In the previous crucial game, Tatum showcased his ability to rise to the occasion by dropping 51 points against the Philadelphia 76ers. While replicating that performance against the Miami Heat is unlikely, it highlights Tatum's capability to deliver in high-stakes situations and his determination to extend his team's season.
Tatum has already scored over 30 points in the first two games of this series. Moreover, during the regular season, he maintained an average of 30.8 points per game against Miami. These numbers provide confidence in backing Boston's premier player as the NBA bet of the day.
The Celtics heavily rely on Tatum's scoring prowess on Tuesday night. With 22 career 30-point playoff games, Tatum is already among the greats in Boston Celtics history, trailing only Larry Bird and John Havlicek.
Considering Tatum's track record, it's plausible to view 30 points as the statistical floor for him tonight. He joins an exclusive group of just four players in NBA history who have recorded 20-plus postseason games of 30-plus points before the age of 25 (Tatum is currently 25).
While Boston has struggled to find consistent contributors beyond Tatum in the first three games against the Heat, the team can rely on their star player in this desperate situation. Betting on Tatum to score over 29.5 points offered at -110 @ BetMGM sportsbook is a lock for tonight Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 matchup!
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Celtics vs. Heat NBA Player Prop Bet #2: Caleb Martin Under 11.5 points (+105) @ bet365 Sportsbook
The ongoing series has been defined by the stark contrast in 3-point shooting between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. Miami has been scorching hot from beyond the arc, converting an impressive 44 of their 92 attempts in the first three games. In contrast, the Celtics have struggled, making just 31 of their 106 attempts. This discrepancy of 13 additional made 3-pointers on 14 fewer attempts is a significant hurdle for Boston to overcome.
What's even more surprising is that Miami was not a strong 3-point shooting team during the regular season, ranking 27th in the league in terms of 3-point percentage. This was despite Tyler Herro shooting a respectable 37.8% from downtown. However, Herro has been sidelined since the first round, forcing the Heat to rely on players like Martin, Strus, Vincent, and Robinson to step up.
Martin, in particular, has been on fire in this series. He has been shooting an impressive 63.2% from the field and 47.6% from beyond the arc, resulting in an average of 19.3 points per game. These numbers are significantly higher than his regular-season averages of 46.4% and 35.6%, respectively.
While the Heat's unexpected performance in the playoffs may challenge our preconceived notions about their regular-season performance, Martin appears to be a prime candidate for regression. Taking into account the odds offered, it seems reasonable to wager on him scoring under 11.5 points.
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Celtics vs. Heat NBA Player Prop Bet #3: Bam Adebayo over 27.5 points and rebounds @ DraftKings sportsbook
Adebayo has been displaying his best form of the postseason in this series. He has surpassed this points and rebounds line in 2 out of 3 games, with the one miss occurring during the blowout Game 3 where he had limited playing time and only attempted 5 field goals.
It's unlikely that Gabe Vincent will have another standout performance like his 29-point game, meaning the focus will likely shift back to the dynamic duo of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo as we have seen in previous matchups.
Adebayo has been consistently getting to the free-throw line, with no fewer than 5 attempts in any of the games. In fact, he has surpassed this points and rebounds line in 5 out of 7 games when attempting 5 or more free throws.
Based on the projections, we anticipate Adebayo to have a stat line of around 20 points and 9 rebounds tonight, which aligns nicely with this line.
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Updated by
Admir Aljic
Last Updated:
