Best Major League Baseball Betting Options for July 11

Best Major League Baseball Betting Options for July 11
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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American League Best Bet

Chicago White Sox -115 at Cleveland Guardians +105

7:10 p.m. ET

The Chicago White Sox, projected by many analysts to dominate the Central Division and have full control of the title at this point of the season, are third in the standings. 

Currently, the White Sox have underperformed more than any other MLB franchise, and there are no signs anything will be different moving forward.

The Guardians will look to pull out of their recent 2-8 tailspin which includes a 1-6 road trip against the AL Central bottom feeders Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers. 

Cleveland and Chicago begin a four-game series at Progressive.

The Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Guardians.

  • The Guardians are 15-4 in home games facing an AL foe allowing 4.4 or more runs per game this season.
  • The Guardians are 20-13 when facing a starter with solid control, allowing 1.75 or fewer walks-per start this season.
  • The CWS are 15-23 following a seven-game span in which their bullpen allowed an average of 2.33 or more runs per game this season.

I will bet the Guardians on the moneyline, currently at +110 as offered at the BetMGM sportsbook.

 

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National League Best Bet

New York Mets +105 at Atlanta Braves -110

7:20 p.m. ET

The New York Mets’ lead has shrunk to 1.5 games over the Atlanta Braves and now the two National League East rivals square off in a three-game series set to start tonight at Truist Field. 

It wasn’t that long ago that the Mets enjoyed a 10.5-game lead over the Braves and a 12.5-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Since June 1, the Braves have the best record in MLB at 28-8 and the Phillies third best at 25-11. The Mets have gone 19-16.

The Trends and Angles

The Mets are 5-18 when facing a foe allowing 4.0 or fewer runs per game in the second half of each of the past two seasons.

The Braves Max Fried is 16-4 when facing an NL foe scoring an average of 4.5 or more runs per game spanning the last two seasons.

Fried is 19-3 when the Braves have been a favorite of not greater than -150 on the moneyline.

I am betting the Braves on the moneyline, at -115 on DraftKings.

 

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Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider today.

  1. Bet the Braves’ Max Fried Under 5.5 hits allowed at -130 with FanDuel.
  2. Bet the Phillies’ Nick Castellanos to have a hit at -270 with Fan Duel.
  3. Bet Boston’s J.D. Martinez to have a hit at -210 with BetMGM.
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