Bet that Zack Wheeler Keeps the Texas Rangers off Balance in Tonight's Game
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Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
We’re on a roll right now, winning 13 days out of the past 15. Let’s try to keep it going.
Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies
6:45 p.m. ET
The Phillies are 11-13 and have averaged a -136 favorite on the moneyline and losing $635 wagered per $100 wager for a terrible -18% ROI.
The total in the Phillies games has been a balanced 12-10-2 Over-Under result with both the Under and Over bets losing money.
The Rangers are 9-14, averaging a +111 moneyline underdog, but have lost $425 per $100 wagered in each of their games with an unfavorable 17% ROI. The Over-Under in Rangers games has been 11-11-1.
Who Is Pitching Tonight?
Zack Wheeler is the ace of the Phillies staff and sports a terrible 5.78 ERA and a 1.393 WHIP in his four starts. He is coming off a 7-1 win over Colorado in which he completed six innings, allowed no earned runs and one hit with seven strikeouts. He is an ace for a reason, and he will be on his game again tonight.
Texas will send left-hander Martin Perez to the hill, who is making his fifth start. He is 0-2 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 21 innings, allowing 16 hits, seven earned runs and 16 strikeouts.
Perez has made five career starts against Philadelphia and has a 2-1 record with an ERA of 4.61 and a WHIP of 1.353.
What do the Analytics Tell Us?
Although the Phillies’ offense has been anemic of late, they have several starters in the batting order that have exit velocities of over 90 mph. First baseman Rhys Hoskins, third baseman Alec Bohm and right fielder Bryce Harper average 93.5 mph exit velocity.
In comparison, the Rangers have two in Adolis Garcia and Brad Miller, who are averaging over 93 mph.
Wheeler is averaging 29.1% of his pitches being hard hit, graded and with an exceptional average launch angle of only 10 degrees.
The optimal launch angle for a MLB batter is right around 17 degrees, so anything under 17 degrees implies that the batters are hitting more ground balls. So, I expect Wheeler to go at least six innings and allow no more than three earned runs.
When the Rangers face a pitcher that completed six or more innings, they are 46-119, for 28%-win percentage. They lose $5,700 per $100 wagered in the last three seasons.
The Over-Under has produced a 56-105-4 record good for 65% winning Under bets when the opposing starter has gone six or more innings.
When a Phillies’ starting pitcher completed six or more at home, they have a 68-30 record for a 69.4% win percentage in the past three seasons.
I am betting the Phillies on the moneyline.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
10:10 ET
The Dodgers say they’re not announcing a starting pitcher for tonight’s game. It is thought to be Tony Gonsolin, or they will go to a bullpen type of arrangement.
Although no starter has been named, the betting markets with the line pricing the Dodgers as a -140 to -150 favorites.
A Set of highly profitable Situational Angles
The Dodgers are 41-9 on moneyline in home games that they have a team slugging percentage of not more than .400 over the last two seasons.
The Dodgers are 22-2, making 20 units per unit wagered on the moneyline in home games after scoring and allowing three or fewer runs in games played over past two seasons.
My Best Bet is on the Dodgers using the moneyline.
MLB Player Prop Bets for Wednesday
Other bets I like tonight:
- Bet on the Cincinnati Reds to score five or more runs at +275 as offered at BetMGM.
- Bet on the Chicago Cubs’ Jason Heyward to get a hit at -110 as offered at BetMGM.
- Bet on the Cubs to score the first run at +140 as offered at BetMGM.
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