Bet There Will Be Lots of Runs in Phillies Game vs. Mets Tonight

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Bet There Will Be Lots of Runs in Phillies Game vs. Mets Tonight
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We’re on a good run with our MLB betting picks right now, with 15 winning days out of the past 17. 

So, we’re looking ahead to tonight’s games to give you betting advice on two of those matchups, plus some prop bets we like.


Philadelphia Phillies at N.Y. Mets

7:05 p.m.

The Phillies led the Mets 7-1 entering the top of the ninth inning on Thursday and somehow two relievers allowed seven runs on eight hits to give the Mets an 8-7 win. 

Regardless of the pitching matchup in the second game of the series, the Over will be my preferred wager because of how the Phillies lost Thursday. 

What the Analytics Say

As a professional sports bettor, I am more concerned with what happens next following an epic collapse and loss. 

There have been 21 games where an MLB team entered the ninth inning with a six-run or greater lead and lost since the start of the 2004 season. 

Teams that were trailing by six or more entering the ninth won and are playing the same team again, the Over is a 10-2-1, for 83% winning bets since 2017.

I am betting the Over in this game.


Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners

9:40 p.m. ET
The Mariners have lost four consecutive games and eight of the last nine. The Rays have won four straight games and nine of their last 12.
The Mariners will turn to Logan Gilbert, who is making his sixth start of the season and has posted a 4-0 record with an 0.64 ERA and a 0.928 WHIP and 27 strikeouts. 

The Marlins will start Matt Wisler, who has a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 11 strikeouts in 12 innings.

Following The Algorithm

The following betting algorithm has earned an 88-67 record for 57% winning bets. It has averaged an attractive +144 underdog wager and has made the $100 bettor a great return of $5,700 spanning the last five seasons. 

The requirements are to bet on underdogs on the moneyline that have a slugging percentage that is lower than .400, has a bullpen sporting a WHIP of 1.25 or lower and is facing an elite starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.150.
I am going bet on the Rays on the moneyline currently at +115 as offered at BetMGM.


MLB Prop Bets for Friday

Other bets I like tonight:

  1. Bet TJ Friedl of the Reds to get at least one hit at -190 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
  2. Bet Chas McCormack of the Astros to have a home run at +375 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
  3. Bet that both the Cardinals and the Giants will score three or more runs at +155 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.


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John Ryan

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