Can Aaron Nola Finally Get Some Run Support? Bet On It

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 14th, 2023
Share On Your Network
Can Aaron Nola Finally Get Some Run Support? Bet On It
© USA Today

Our good run of MLB betting picks continues, with 17 winning days in the past 21. 

So, we’re looking ahead to tonight’s games to give you betting advice on two of those matchups, plus some prop bets we like.

Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners

9:40 p.m. ET

Seattle left-hander Robbie Ray is one of the better starters in recent years, but given the lack of offensive production, the Mariners might need a Cy Young award-like performance from him tonight to get a much-needed win.

The Mariners have lost 13 of their past 15 games and have been shut out five times, most in the majors.

The Phillies Aaron Nola is on the mound and he has been pitching well, but he, too, has been victimized by too few runs.

In his past three starts, Nola has a 1.80 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP but is 0-1, and his team record is 0-3. In his last start, the Phillies scored seven runs and he allowed one in seven innings. However, the Mets scored seven runs in the top of the ninth inning against two relievers to get the win and gave Nola a no-decision.

Ray is not in elite form with an 0-2 record in his last three starts. He has a 4.58 ERA and a 1.245 WHIP in 17 ⅔ innings. He has allowed 17 earned runs in his past 30 innings for a 5.10 ERA.

I am betting the Phillies using the moneyline.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

9:38 p.m. ET

The Rockies will start right-hander Antonio Senzatela, who is 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA in six starts. 

The Giants will counter with left-hander Alex Wood, who is 2-2 with a 4.38 ERA. 

Senzatela is 5-1 with a 4.24 ERA in 10 career outings, including eight starts against the Giants. Every starting pitcher has a team they, for whatever reasons, perform very well against. For Senzatela, it is the Giants.

The markets have the Rockies as +190 underdogs on the moneyline and this represents a contrarian wager with Senzatela on the hill. 

The Rockies are 26-16 on the moneyline, making 12.7 units per unit wagered when facing a starter who averages less than five innings of work per start over the past two seasons. 

The Rockies are 33-25 on the moneyline making 17 units per unit wagered when facing a left-handed starting pitcher over the past two seasons.

I am betting on the Rockies using the moneyline at +190.

Other Bets I Like Tonight 

  1. Bet Alec Bohm of the Phillies to hit a home run at +550 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
  2. Bet Carlos Rodón of the Giants Over 7.5 strikeouts at +100 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
  3. Bet Austin Slater of the Giants to get a hit at -200 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.