Looks Like Taking the Astros Moneyline Against Mariners is a Good Bet Today
Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
Seattle vs. Houston
Houston opened as -120 home favorites against Seattle in this game scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
A steady flow of bets backing the Astros moved the line to -133 at several sportsbooks.
The total opened at 8.5 runs and has remained static at that price with balanced action on both sides of the total.
A Struggling Pitching Matchup
Marco Gonzalez starts for the Mariners and he has a 9-1 Under record when facing a team that is batting .255 or worse and 10-0 Under when facing an opponent with a .330 or lower on-base-percentage the past two seasons.
He is coming off his best start, a seven-inning game against Houston that he allowed one earned run on four hits, with no walks and six strikeouts in an 11-1 win.
Jake Odorizzi will start for the Astros and he was on the other end of that 11-1 game.
Astros manager Dusty Baker has been forced to tweak his batting order over the past 10 games, searching for the right combination of power and contact.
Houston is 7-2 when facing a left-handed starting pitcher, scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game with a .452 slugging percentage over the past two seasons.
I am betting the Houston Astros on the moneyline, anywhere from -130 up to -140.
Atlanta vs. NY Mets
The Mets have won $455 for the $100 bettor in their 22 games, tops in MLB.
The defending champs Braves are off to a slow start and have the lost $425 for the $100 bettor.
So, this presents a contrarian betting opportunity fading the Mets, who are coming off a 2-1 series win over the divisional rival Philadelphia Phillies in tonight’s game starting at 7:10 ET.
A highly Profitable Betting Situation
Here is a profitable betting angle that has earned a 37-15 record for 71% wining bets over the past 25 MLB seasons and an 8-2 record for 80% winners over the last three seasons.
Bet on a team involved in a game lined between +125 and -125 on the moneyline with a below average OBP of 310 or lower, starting a pitcher that has posted a 6.25 ERA or worse and is facing an opponent that is starting a pitcher with above average control sporting a 1.25 or lower WHIP.
Braves starter Charlie Morton is monumentally better than his 7.00 ERA and 1.779 WHIP reflects. If not the case, then why is the market pricing this game at pick-em with the Mets starting former Oakland A’s ace Chris Bassett, who sports a 2.25 ERA and a 0.917 WHIP.
My Best Bet is on the Braves using the moneyline, currently at +100 and is valid if the Braves are a favorite of not more than -115.
MLB Player Prop Bets for Monday
Other bets I like tonight:
- Bet on Astros starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi to record more than 3.5 strikeouts at +100 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Bet on Chas McCormick to hit a home run at +270 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Bet on Max Fried to record more than 5.5 strikeouts at +110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
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