MLB Betting Advice: Best Bets to Make on July 15 Games

MLB Betting Advice: Best Bets to Make on July 15 Games
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Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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National League Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies +140 at Miami Marlins -165

6:40 p.m. ET

There is no question that the Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara is the favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award. 

He is 9-3 in 19 starts with a 1.73 ERA and a .913 WHIP with 111 strikeouts and 31 walks.

He has the best wins above replacement measure (WAR) at 5.0 of any pitcher or position player in MLB. He ranks second in ERA, fifth in WHIP, fourth in hits allowed per nine innings, and first in total innings pitched. 

Despite all of this, I believe he will be in trouble against this Phillies lineup.

The Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Phillies.

  • The Phillies are 8-1 on the road and following two games with at least seven fewer hits than their opponents. 
  • The Marlins are 11-22 following a game in which the bullpen did not allow an earned run this season.
  • The Marlins are 21-41 following four consecutive games played at home spanning the last two seasons.

I am going to the window betting the Phillies using the +1.5 run line at -155 on BetMGM.

 

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American League Best Bet

Boston Red Sox +145 at New York Yankees -155

7:05 p.m. ET

I have stated on several occasions that given the New York Yankees' domination of their opponents in the first half of the season, the betting markets had made them significantly overpriced in every game. 

I added that blindly fading the Yankees starting on July 1 would have a high probability of making money. The Yankees are 7-7 in July but have averaged a -210 moneyline favorite that has produced a -$570 loss for the $100 bettor and a horrid -27% return-on-investment (ROI). 

I believe this trend will continue and even if the Yankees produce a 6-4 record over their next 10 games the bettor who fades them will make profits.

Boston starts Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 3.16 ERA), who is coming off the injured list. The hard-throwing veteran right-hander has been sidelined since June 9 with severe back inflammation and related problems. 

His rehab assignments were dominating, and he is throwing again without pain.

Trends and Angles

  • Red Sox skipper Alex Cora is 25-13 in road games facing an AL opponent allowing fewer than four runs per game for his career.
  • The Yankees are 19-26 after losing four or five of their past six games over the last two seasons.
  • Yankee starter Jordan Montgomery is 3-11 in July.

I will bet on the Red Sox on the moneyline at +150 on BetMGM.

 

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Quick Pitches

These are the player prop bets to consider today.

  1. Bet the Marlins’ Alcantara Over 1.5 earned runs at -130 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
  2. Bet on Cleveland’s Franmil Reyes to hit a home run at +340 at Unibet Sportsbook.
  3. Bet the Athletics’ Seth Brown to get a hit at -210 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
  4. Bet the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw Under 1.5 earned runs allowed at +104 at Caesars Sportsbook.
  5. Bet the Diamondbacks’ Christian Walker to hit a home run +390 at BetRivers Sportsbook.

 

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