MLB Betting Advice for Aug. 15

MLB Betting Advice for Aug. 15
© USA Today

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets, or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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American League Best Bet

Houston Astros -125 at Chicago White Sox +105 | Total: 8-runs

8:10 p.m. ET

The Houston Astros has the best record in the AL and are playing well of late. The White Sox have been the most underachieving team in MLB but somehow find themselves just two games from the third and final AL wild-card berth and just 2.5 games from the AL Central lead held by the Cleveland Guardians.

Chicago will start Johnny Cueto, who has allowed 21 hits in his 14 innings this month but has gotten out of multiple jams, allowing just five earned runs. 

That will not work against an Astros team scoring 5.6 runs per game over their past seven games. The Astros' bullpen has been a bit shaky, sporting a 4.71 ERA and a 1.714 WHIP over their past seven games and the bats are heating up, having batted .282 over their last seven games. 

The White Sox bullpen is a big problem, posting a 5.71 ERA and a 1.673 WHIP over their last seven games.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Over in this matchup.

  • The Astros skipper Dusty Baker is 17-5 Over in road games following six or more games against divisional foes.
  • The Astros starter Jose Urquidy is 17-6 Over following a win in starts made over the last two seasons.
  • The CWS starter Johnny Cueto is 15-4 Over in home starts taking place in August throughout his career.

I am betting the Over 8-runs -120 as offered at BetMGM.

 

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National League Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies -180 at Cincinnati Reds +165

6;40 p.m. ET

The Phillies lost the three-game series to their NL East rival and NL East division-leading New York Mets over the weekend and didn't score a run in the final two games. 

However, the news is much brighter for them playing the losing-record Reds in the first of a three-game series starting tonight.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Phillies in this matchup.

  • Winning record favorites coming off a divisional matchup and did not score in the last two games, with the game taking place in the second half of the season, has produced a 34-8 record, averaging a -157 bet and producing a 44% ROI since 2004.
  • The Phillies are 20-10 making 14 units on the moneyline when facing a team batting .250 or lower in the second half of this season.
  • Cincinnati starter Mike Minor is 5-21 (team Record), losing 18 units on the moneyline, facing teams that strand seven or fewer runners on base in starts he has made over the past two seasons.

I will bet the Phillies using the 1.5-run line +120 as offered at BetMGM.

 

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Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  • Bet the Orioles' Auston Hays to get a hit -215 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Phillies' starter Noah Syndergaard Under 2.5 earned runs allowed -110 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Braves' Austin Riley to get 2+ hits +260 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the A’s Sean Murphy to hit a home run +440 at Unibet.
  • Bet the Yankees' starter Gerrit Cole Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -143 at Caesars.

I went 9-9 last week on the player prop bets, making $27.00 per $20 pizza-money wager.

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