MLB Betting Advice for Aug. 23

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MLB Betting Advice for Aug. 23
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

Interleague Best Bet

Washington Nationals +220 at Seattle Mariners -270

10:10 p.m. ET

The Washington Nationals were featured twice last week in their back-to-back wins priced as +300 and +280 underdogs over the San Diego Padres. 

For this matchup against the playoff contending Seattle Mariners, I am focused squarely on betting the Over.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Over in this matchup.

  • Teams, like the Nationals, which have been priced as a +225 or more underdog in four consecutive games and are playing at least their fifth game on the road, have seen the Over post a 10-4 record for 71.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
  • Teams coming off four straight games priced as a +225 or greater underdog and are now priced at a minimum of a +175 dog have seen the Over go 10-2-1 for 83.3% winning bets.
  • Seattle manager Scott Servais is 40-15 Over when facing an NL foe with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse.

I am betting the Over 7.5 runs +100 as offered at BetMGM.

National League Best Bet

Cincinnati Reds +170 at Philadelphia Phillies -200

7:05 p.m. ET

The Philadelphia Phillies would be in the playoffs if the season ended today and with 40 games left in the regular season and 28 against losing record teams, they look to be in good shape there.

Reigning National League MVP Bryce Harper will rejoin the team after recovering from a broken thumb. 

His return to an already Top 5 offense is the catalyst this team needs to make the playoffs and a deep run.

A little more than a month ago, I bet the Phillies at 22:1 to win the NLCS and I remain behind that bet. 

They are currently priced at 13:1 and I have been offered twice my betting amount at BetMGM, but I will continue to ride this until I am offered at least seven times my original bet and will then buy it back for a nice gain.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Phillies.

  • The Reds are 13-36, losing 17 units on the moneyline, when facing a foe that it is outscoring their opponents by .5 or more runs per game.
  • The Phillies are 16-8, making 10 units on the run line, when priced as a home favorite and the run line is priced between +140 and –190.
  • Cincinnati manager David Bell is 54-77, losing 32 units on the run line, when facing a solid fielding team committing .5 or fewer errors per game.

I will bet the Phillies on the run line at +100, as offered at DraftKings.

Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider on today’s schedule.

  • Bet the Phillies’ Ranger Suarez Under 2.5 earned runs allowed -160 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Yankees’ starter Frankie Montas Under 2.5 runs allowed -127 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Dodgers’ Will Smith to have 3+ hits +2400 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Marlins’ Pablo Lopez Under 1.5 earned runs allowed -105 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Pirates’ J.T. Brubaker Over 2.5 earned runs allowed -120 at DraftKings.

In the last 38 prop bet recommendations, I’ve gone 21-17 and made $264 per $20 pizza-money wager.

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John Ryan

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