MLB Betting Advice for Aug. 8
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
American League Best Bet
New York Yankees -105 at Seattle Mariners -105
10:10 p.m. ET
The New York Yankees are on a season-high five-game losing streak, and you can be certain the sports books will be overwhelmed with public money on the Yankees.
However, the Yankees are flawed and struggling right now, and have gone 12-18, averaging a -167 favorite on the moneyline, over their past 30 games and rank 24 out of the 30 MLB teams in win percentage and second to last in ROI.
Teams that have been 30 or more games over .500 on the season and are on a five or more-game losing streak are 5-12 regardless of location, have averaged a -185 moneyline bet, and have produced a -62% ROI over the past 15 seasons.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a bet on the Mariners.
- The Yankees are 1-7, losing 8.5 units in the second half of this season when facing an opponent that averages .5 or fewer errors per game.
- The Mariners are 38-23, making 26.7 units when facing a team with a winning record in the second half of each of the past two seasons.
- The Mariners are 7-1, making 8.2 units, when facing a solid fielding team, and averaging.5 or fewer errors per game in the second half of this season.
I am betting the Mariners -105 using the moneyline at BetMGM and I like this bet up to and including the Mariners as a -125 home favorite.
National League Best Bet
Cincinnati Reds +240 at New York Mets -300
7:10 p.m. ET
The Mets took four of five games against the Atlanta Braves and now have a more comfortable 6.5 game lead in standings.
They have won three straight games and eight of their past 10 games. So, the question is, can the Mets keep winning at this rate to stave off the surging competitors behind?
The Cincinnati Reds have been out of the playoff race since May but are playing their best baseball right now, winning six of their last 10 games.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Reds in this matchup.
- The Reds are 6-0, making nine units, in road games when coming off an upset win over a NL Central division rival in games played over the past two seasons.
- The Mets are 35-45, losing 24 units, following two or more consecutive wins in games played over the last three seasons.
- The Reds starter Eric Dunn is 13-7, making 11 units, when facing a National League foe batting no better than .245 in the second half of the last two seasons.
I am going to the window betting the Reds on the moneyline offered at +240 at BetMGM.
Quick Pitches
These are player prop bets to consider on today’s schedule.
- Bet the Reds’ Joey Votto to hit a home run +390 as offered at FanDuel.
- Bet the Reds’ Mike Moustakas to hit a home run +460 as offered at BetRivers.
- Bet Yankees starter Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 earned runs allowed -115 as offered at DraftKings.
- Bet the Giants’ Thairo Estrada to have 2+ hits +320 at FanDuel.
- Bet A’s starter Cole Irvin Over 5.5 hits allowed +105 as offered at DraftKings.
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