MLB Betting Advice for Games and Props on the Aug. 17 Schedule

MLB Betting Advice for Games and Props on the Aug. 17 Schedule
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

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American League Best Bet

Tampa Bay Rays +130 at New York Yankees -150

7:05 p.m. ET

If it ain’t broke, don't fix it. I have been on the Tampa Rays in their last two wins over the New York Yankees.

Since July 1, the Yankees are 16-24, averaging a -180 moneyline wager, and producing a -31.5% ROI. 

They have the worst record in MLB at 3-12 over their past 15 games and are averaging a -157 moneyline wager resulting in a -69% ROI. 

As you can see, the market has adjusted its pricing for the Yankees, but they continue to lose money for their backers. 

If they are a favorite of -130, there will be value to fading them.

Situational Trends and Angles

Here is how the trends and angles size up this game.

  • Betting against any team, like the Yankees, using the run line that is 25 or more games over .500 in games played after the All-Star break, and has won five or fewer of their last 15 games has produced a 38-12 run line record, averaging a -112 bet, resulting in a 49% ROI over the past 10 seasons.
  • The Rays are 22-7, making 17 units on the run line, when facing a team that has outscored their opponents by .5 or more runs per game in the second half of each of the past two seasons.

I am betting the Rays using the run line priced at -160 as offered at BetMGM.

 

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National League Best Bet

Los Angeles Dodgers -165 at Milwaukee Brewers +150

8:10 p.m. ET

The Brewers will start Eric Lauer, who is 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA over his last three starts. Lauer has given up a career-high 22 homers in 118 2/3 innings, including two in his last outing, a 3-1 loss at St. Louis. 

The Dodgers rank fifth in MLB, averaging 1.35 home runs per game this season.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Dodgers in this matchup.

  • The Dodgers are 34-11, making 18 units on the moneyline, when priced as a -125 to -175 favorite this season.
  • The Dodgers are 90-36, making 25 units on the moneyline, after having won six or seven of their last eight games this season.
  • Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin is 24-4, making 15 units on the moneyline, when priced as a -150 or greater favorite in starts made over the past two seasons.

I will bet the Dodgers -165 on the moneyline as offered at BetRivers.

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Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets on today’s schedule to consider.

  • Bet the Yankees' Domingo German Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +110 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin Over 17.5 outs recorded at Caesars.
  • Bet the Blue Jays' George Springer to get 2+ hits +210 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Astros' Aledmys Díaz to get 2+ hits +280 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the A’s Chad Pinder to hit a home run +400 at FanDuel.

We are 15-12 on the past 30 prop bets with two no plays making $157 per $20 pizza-money wager.

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