MLB Betting Advice for Games on the Aug. 1 Schedule

MLB Betting Advice for Games on the Aug. 1 Schedule
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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Intereleague Best Bet

Cleveland Guardians (-160) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+135)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Cleveland Guardians are 5-5 over their past 10 games and are coming off a 5-3 road win over the fellow playoff contender Tampa Bay Rays. 

The Guardians did not have an extra-base hit in the win but still scored five runs on nine singles and four walks. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a 1-0 shutout loss to the Atlanta Braves. They also failed to get an extra-base hit but had four singles and four walks in the loss.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Guardians.

  • The Diamondbacks are 1-5, averaging a +136 moneyline wager resulting in a -56% return-on-investment (ROI) coming off a game in which they failed to have an extra-base hit this season.
  • The Guardians are 4-0, averaging a -108 moneyline wager resulting in a 94% ROI coming off a game in which they failed to have an extra-base hit this season.
  • The Diamondbacks are 13-32, losing 23 units on the moneyline when facing a team that averages three or fewer walks per game in games played over the last two seasons.

I am betting the Guardians in this game using the moneyline, currently priced at -150 at DraftKings.

 

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American League Best Bet

Baltimore Orioles (+140) at Texas Rangers (-165)

8:05 p.m. ET

The Baltimore Orioles are 51-51, three games behind in the AL Wild Card race. 

The Rangers are 7.5 games out of the third and final AL Wild Card berth. 

The Orioles have the seventh-best bullpen based on WHIP at 1.188. The Rangers bullpen ranks 15th in WHIP at 1.242. 

The Orioles bullpen ranks fourth in MLB with a 3.05 ERA and fifth with 27 bullpen wins. 

The Rangers bullpen ranks 12th in MLB with a 3.79 ERA and 22nd with 19 bullpen wins. 

From Aug. 1 to the crowning of the World Series Champions, the bullpen takes on an increasingly important role. The Orioles have one of the best bullpens in MLB, which is why I like them to win this game.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting trends and angles support a moneyline bet on the Orioles.

  • The Orioles are 33-23, making 18 units when facing a team that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season.
  • The Orioles are on a 13-7 streak, making nine units when facing a team that averages seven or more strikeouts per game in the second half of this season.
  • The Rangers are 11-28, losing 17 units when facing an AL foe that has a slugging percentage at .400 or worse in games played in the second half of each of the past two seasons.

I will bet the Orioles using the moneyline offered at +140 at FanDuel.

 

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Quick Pitches

Here are some other bets to consider today.

  • Bet the Rockies' Antonio Senzatela Under 2.5 earned runs, +105 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Giants' Logan Webb Over 6.5 hits allowed, +111 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Red Sox' J.D. Martinez to hit a double, +390 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Royals' Nicky Lopez to get a hit, -170 at PointsBet.
  • Bet the Orioles' Adley Rutschman to have two+ hits, +260 at FanDuel.

 

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