MLB Betting Advice for Games on the Aug. 1 Schedule
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
Intereleague Best Bet
Cleveland Guardians (-160) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+135)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Cleveland Guardians are 5-5 over their past 10 games and are coming off a 5-3 road win over the fellow playoff contender Tampa Bay Rays.
The Guardians did not have an extra-base hit in the win but still scored five runs on nine singles and four walks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a 1-0 shutout loss to the Atlanta Braves. They also failed to get an extra-base hit but had four singles and four walks in the loss.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Guardians.
- The Diamondbacks are 1-5, averaging a +136 moneyline wager resulting in a -56% return-on-investment (ROI) coming off a game in which they failed to have an extra-base hit this season.
- The Guardians are 4-0, averaging a -108 moneyline wager resulting in a 94% ROI coming off a game in which they failed to have an extra-base hit this season.
- The Diamondbacks are 13-32, losing 23 units on the moneyline when facing a team that averages three or fewer walks per game in games played over the last two seasons.
I am betting the Guardians in this game using the moneyline, currently priced at -150 at DraftKings.
American League Best Bet
Baltimore Orioles (+140) at Texas Rangers (-165)
8:05 p.m. ET
The Baltimore Orioles are 51-51, three games behind in the AL Wild Card race.
The Rangers are 7.5 games out of the third and final AL Wild Card berth.
The Orioles have the seventh-best bullpen based on WHIP at 1.188. The Rangers bullpen ranks 15th in WHIP at 1.242.
The Orioles bullpen ranks fourth in MLB with a 3.05 ERA and fifth with 27 bullpen wins.
The Rangers bullpen ranks 12th in MLB with a 3.79 ERA and 22nd with 19 bullpen wins.
From Aug. 1 to the crowning of the World Series Champions, the bullpen takes on an increasingly important role. The Orioles have one of the best bullpens in MLB, which is why I like them to win this game.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting trends and angles support a moneyline bet on the Orioles.
- The Orioles are 33-23, making 18 units when facing a team that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season.
- The Orioles are on a 13-7 streak, making nine units when facing a team that averages seven or more strikeouts per game in the second half of this season.
- The Rangers are 11-28, losing 17 units when facing an AL foe that has a slugging percentage at .400 or worse in games played in the second half of each of the past two seasons.
I will bet the Orioles using the moneyline offered at +140 at FanDuel.
Here are some other bets to consider today.
- Bet the Rockies' Antonio Senzatela Under 2.5 earned runs, +105 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Giants' Logan Webb Over 6.5 hits allowed, +111 at Caesars.
- Bet the Red Sox' J.D. Martinez to hit a double, +390 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Royals' Nicky Lopez to get a hit, -170 at PointsBet.
- Bet the Orioles' Adley Rutschman to have two+ hits, +260 at FanDuel.
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