MLB Picks: Baseball Betting Advice for Sept. 12
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
American League Best Bet
Tampa Bay Rays +135 at Toronto Blue Jays -155
7:07 p.m. ET
This five-game series between the Blue Jays and Rays in Toronto that will provide plenty of playoff implications.
Tampa Bay trails the New York Yankees by 5.5 games and the Blue Jays by six games in the AL East.
These two teams, along with the Seattle Mariners, own the three AL Wild card berths. But that doesn't guarantee all three are in.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Rays using the moneyline in this matchup.
- The Rays are 4-1 on the moneyline, making 5.5 units, when priced as a road underdog of at least +130 and having lost two or more consecutive games spanning the last three seasons.
- The Rays are 11-4, making 14.5 units on the moneyline, when facing a division foe spanning the last three seasons.
- The Rays are 26-23, making 14 units on the moneyline, when priced as a 130 or greater underdog and facing an opponent that is averaging 1.1 or more home runs per game spanning the last three seasons.
I am betting the Rays on the moneyline at +135 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
National League Best Bet
Los Angeles Dodgers -230 at Arizona Diamondbacks +190
9:40 p.m. ET
The Dodgers continue to steamroll the rest of the league and the market pricing for them has become quite expensive.
They are 53 games over .500 and have outscored their opponents by 310 runs or 2.3 runs per game.
To put this in perspective there have been only two other teams in the past 15 seasons to have outscored their opponents by 1.75 or more RPG: the Chicago Cubs in 2016 and the Houston Astros in 2017.
However, there is an opportunity to exploit tonight betting the Diamondbacks on the +1.5-run line tonight.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting angle supports a run line wager on the Diamondbacks.
- The Diamondbacks are 40-20 on the run line, making 26 units, in home games and facing an opponent that is averaging 3.5 or more extra-base hits per game.
- The Diamondbacks are 36-21, making 16 units on the run line, when facing a team whose hitters strike out an average of seven or more times per game in games played this season.
- The Diamondbacks are 25-11, making 14 units on the run line, when facing a foe starting a left-handed starter in games played this season.
I am going to the window betting the Diamondbacks on the +1.5-run line +115 as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.
These are some player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.
- Bet the Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +100 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Dodgers Justin Turner to get 2+ hits +210 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Dodgers Trea Turner to get 2+ hits +115 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Cubs David Bote to get a hit -140 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Astros starter Framber Valdez Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +110 at BetMGM.
In the past 84 prop bet picks, our record is 42-42, making a profit of $394 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,970 per $100 wager. The results over more than three months have produced a 57% return On Investment (ROI).
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