MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 26
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bet
Atlanta Braves -235 at Washington Nationals +215
7:05 p.m. ET
The Braves visited the White House today to celebrate last season’s World Series championship. That brief experience will then return the focus to continue hunting down the New York Mets, who they trail by 1.5 games in the NL East divisional race with nine games left.
They maintained that deficit with a wild and crazy weekend against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are also fighting for a wild card berth. The Braves dropped the first two games, but rallied for a series split.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Over in this matchup.
- Nationals manager Edgar Martinez is 65-36 Over in home games and taking on a National League foe with a .325 or lower on-base percentage (OBP) in the second half of the season over his career.
- The Braves are 14-4-1 Over when revenging a loss to an opponent as a home favorite.
- The Braves are 16-5 Over in road games and following a five-game stretch in which their bullpen has posted a 2.00 or lower ERA.
I am betting the Over nine runs -105 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
American League Best Bet
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
7:07 p.m. ET
The Yankees have won seven consecutive games and have separated themselves from the other contenders in the AL East standings.
The focus in this series against Toronto is on Aaron Judge's quest to break the American League record of 61 home runs held by former Yankee Roger Maris.
In a twist of numbers, it has been 61 years to the day that Maris hit his 60th home run to tie Babe Ruth’s record in the 1961 season and Judge is looking to hit his 61st home run to tie Maris’ 61-year-old record.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting angles support a bet on the Blue Jays using the moneyline.
- The Yankees are 3-10, losing 14.5 units on the moneyline, in road games and coming off a shutout win over a divisional opponent.
- Yankees manager Aaron Boone is 19-42, losing 18 units on the moneyline, when on a five or more-game win streak.
- The Yankees are 15-21, losing 16 units on the moneyline, in road games after scoring and allowing three or fewer runs in games played over the last two seasons.
I am going to the window betting the Blue Jays using the moneyline at –115, as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here are some player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.
- Bet the Yankees' Aaron Judge to hit a home run +250 at BetRivers.
- Bet the Astros' Chas McCormick to hit a home run +600 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Phillies' Bryce Harper to hit a home run +425 at Unibet.
- Bet the Phillies' Aaron Nola Under 1.5 earned runs allowed +105 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Red Sox's Rafael Devers to get 2+ hits +290 at FanDuel.
In the past 131 prop bet suggestions, I have a 58-73 record, making a profit of $383.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,915 per $100 wager. The results over more than four months have produced a 62% return on investment (ROI).
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